Regional Sustainability ›› 2026, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (5): 100390.doi: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100390
• Research article • Previous Articles Next Articles
LI Mana,b, ZHAO Lina, HE Haoa, YU Huijiea, DAI Siyuana, Rathnayaka Mudiyanselage Dinesh Madhushanka KARUNARATNAAa, Abu Reza Muhammad Towfiqul ISLAMc,d, WU Donglie, LI Qia, HU Zhenghuaa,*(
)
Received:2025-08-16
Revised:2026-07-18
Accepted:2026-09-20
Published:2026-09-30
Online:2026-10-12
Contact:
HU Zhenghua
E-mail:zhhu@nuist.edu.cn
LI Man, ZHAO Lin, HE Hao, YU Huijie, DAI Siyuan, Rathnayaka Mudiyanselage Dinesh Madhushanka KARUNARATNAA, Abu Reza Muhammad Towfiqul ISLAM, WU Dongli, LI Qi, HU Zhenghua. Linking land use and cover change to Sustainable Development Goals and carbon storage: A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(5): 100390.
Fig. 1.
Flowchart of the study process. DEM, digital elevation model; GRP, gross regional product; NDVI, normalized difference vegetation index; LUH2, Land-Use Harmonization 2; SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway; PLUS, patch-generating land use simulation; CARS, a cellular automata based on multi-type random patch seeds; LEAS, land expansion analysis strategy; RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway; SDG, Sustainable Development Goal; InVEST, integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs."
Fig. 2.
Overview of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Note that the figure is based on the standard map (GS(2024)0650) from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services (https://cloudcenter.tianditu.gov.cn/) issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified."
Fig. 3.
Spatial patterns and area proportions of land use types in the YRB in the historical period and in the future under different scenarios. (a), 2010; (b), 2020; (c), under SSP1-2.6 scenario for 2030 (2030 SSP126); (d), under SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2030 (2030 SSP245); (e), under SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2030 (2030 SSP585); (f), under SSP1-2.6 scenario for 2060 (2060 SSP126); (g), under SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2060 (2060 SSP245); (h), under SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2060 (2060 SSP585). The pie charts illustrate the area proportion of each land use type within the YRB."
Fig. 4.
Spatial distribution of historical patterns and simulated patterns of SDG 2.1 (a1-a8), SDG 2.4 (b1-b8), SDG 11.2 (c1-c8), SDG 15.1F (d1-d8), and SDG 15.1G (e1-e8) under SSP-RCP scenarios at the city level in the YRB. For each SDG, panels 1-8 correspond to 2010, 2020, 2030 SSP126, 2030 SSP245, 2030 SSP585, 2060 SSP126, 2060 SSP245, and 2060 SSP585, respectively."
Fig. 6.
Spatial and temporal distributions of normalized carbon storage (CS) in historical patterns (2010 and 2020) and simulated patterns under SSP-RCP scenarios (2030 and 2060) at the city level in the YRB. (a), 2010; (b), 2020; (c), 2030 SSP126; (d), 2030 SSP245; (e), 2030 SSP585; (f), 2060 SSP126; (g), 2060 SSP245; (h), 2060 SSP585. All CS values were normalized between 0.00 and 1.00 to facilitate comparative analysis and consistent visualization."
Fig. 7.
Temporal distribution of historical patterns and simulated patterns of normalized CS under different SSP-RCP scenarios at the city level. The coloured circles represent city-level CS values. All CS values were normalized between 0.00 and 1.00 to facilitate comparative analysis and consistent visualization."
Fig. 8.
Interactions among SDGs and their relationships with CS. (a), interactions among SDGs and between SDGs and CS; (b), synergistic and trade-off relationships among SDGs and between SDGs and CS. For Figure 8a, scatter plots in the lower triangular panels illustrate the relationships between each pair of variables, with the blue solid line indicating the linear regression fit. The diagonal panels display histograms with overlaid kernel density curves, representing the distribution of each variable. In the upper triangular panels, the *, **, and *** symbols represent significant correlations at the 0.050, 0.010, and 0.001 significance levels, respectively."
Fig. 9.
Changes in CS driven by the dominant land use and cover change (LUCC) types during distinct periods at the city level in the YRB. (a), 2010-2020; (b), under SSP1-2.6 scenario for 2020-2030 (2020-2030 SSP126); (c), under SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2020-2030 (2020-2030 SSP245); (d), under SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020-2030 (2020-2030 SSP585); (e), under SSP1-2.6 scenario for 2030-2060 (2030-2060 SSP126); (f), under SSP2-4.5 scenario for 2030-2060 (2030-2060 SSP245); (g), under SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2030-2060 (2030-2060 SSP585). The land use types on the left side of the triangle represent outflow, whereas those on the right side indicate inflows. Note that these figures are based on the standard map (GS(2024)0650) from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services (https://cloudcenter.tianditu.gov.cn/) issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China, and the boundary of the standard map has not been modified."
Table S1
Data sources used for this research."
| Category | Data | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Land use | China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) | Wuhan University CLCD-Land use and cover change (LUCC) Product ( |
| Land-use harmonization 2 (LUH2) data | Land Use Harmonization 2 project ( | |
| Carbon density | Carbon density data | Ecosystem Research Network Data Center ( |
| Socioeconomic factor | Gross regional product (GRP) | Resource and Environment Science and Data Center ( |
| Population data | Liu et al. ( | |
| Natural factor | Temperature | National Earth System Science Data Center ( |
| Precipitation | National Earth System Science Data Center ( | |
| Digital elevation model (DEM) | Resource and Environment Science and Data Center ( | |
| Slope | Resource and Environment Science and Data Center ( | |
| Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) | Resource and Environment Science and Data Center ( | |
| Accessibility data | Distance to road, railway, and water | National Catalogue Service for Geographic Information ( |
| Accuracy validation data | Global live vegetation biomass carbon dataset | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4161694 (Xu et al., |
Table S2
Reclassification of land use types in the LUH2, CLCD, and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model."
| Land use type in the LUH2 | Land use type in the CLCD | Land use type in the PLUS model |
|---|---|---|
| Forested primary land | Forest | Forestland |
| Potentially forested secondary land | Shrub | Forestland |
| Rangeland | Grassland | Grassland |
| Managed pasture | Grassland | Grassland |
| C3 annual crops | Cropland | Cropland |
| C3 perennial crops | Cropland | Cropland |
| C4 annual crops | Cropland | Cropland |
| C4 perennial crops | Cropland | Cropland |
| C3 nitrogen-fixing crops | Cropland | Cropland |
| Urban land | Urban | Construction land |
| Non-forested primary land | Barren | Barren land |
| Potentially non-forested secondary land | Barren | Barren land |
| None | Water body | Water body |
| None | Snow/Ice | Water body |
| None | Wetland | Water body |
Table S3
Carbon density across different land use types in the Yellow River Basin (YRB)."
| Land use type | Cabove (t/hm2) | Cbelow (t/hm2) | Csoil (t/hm2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forestland | 31.47 | 8.20 | 75.76 |
| Grassland | 0.75 | 4.70 | 72.10 |
| Cropland | 1.97 | 0.30 | 65.28 |
| Construction land | 0.73 | 7.99 | 0.00 |
| Barren land | 0.38 | 0.00 | 6.28 |
| Water body | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Table S4
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators used in this study."
| Characterization index | Quantification method | Unit | Attribute | Source | SDG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land reclamation rate | Cropland area/total land area | % | + | Qiao et al. (2023) | SDG 2.1 |
| Per capita cropland | Cropland area/total population | km2/capita | + | Jia et al. ( | SDG 2.4 |
| Urbanization rate | Construction land area/total land area | % | + | Yin et al. ( | SDG 11.2 |
| Forestland coverage | Forestland area/total land area | % | + | Xu et al. (2020) | SDG 15.1F |
| Grassland coverage | Grassland area/total land area | % | + | Zuo et al. (2025) | SDG 15.1G |
Fig. S1.
Relative contributions of driving factors to the expansion of the six land use types estimated using the random forest algorithm in the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model within the Yellow River Basin (YRB). GRP, gross regional product; NDVI, normalized difference vegetation index; DEM, digital elevation model."
Fig. S3.
Fitting results between the normalized carbon storage (CS) simulated by the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model for 2010 (a) and 2020 (b) and the CS of live vegetation biomass developed by Xu et al. (2021) at the city level. The 2019 reference dataset was used to validate the estimated CS in 2020. CS validation was conducted by comparing the 2020 estimates against the 2019 reference values. R2, determination of coefficient; NSE, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error."
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