Multi-scenario simulation of land use spatial patterns in arid metropolitan regions of China with a coupled WESP-FLUS model

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100336

Abstract

Abstract:

Coordinating urban development with the protection of water resources is a serious global challenge faced by countries worldwide. This study constructed the coupled Water Ecological Security Pattern-Future Land Use Simulation (WESP-FLUS) model by integrating methods for identifying water-ecological sensitive areas and simulating land use type changes. Taking the Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area in arid region of northwestern China as a case study, this research simulated land use patterns in 2030 under four development scenarios (natural development, urban economic optimization, ecological conservation priority, and urban-water coordinated development scenarios). The results identified 109.81 km² of water-ecological source areas and 43 water-ecological corridors with a total length of 1255.4 km. Predicted land use patterns for 2030 displayed diverse trends, constrained by water-ecological sensitive areas across different scenarios, with urban built-up land mainly expanding radially around the central urban axis. The urban-water coordinated development scenario was the optimal solution that meets both urban development needs and water-ecological protection objectives. The urban built-up land could reach 546.68 km² in 2030, representing a 91.39 km² increase compared to 2020. This study aims to improve spatial planning methods under the “determining cities by water” concept, scientifically supporting territorial spatial planning and providing theoretical support for the coupling of urban development and natural environment in water-scarce arid regions.

Key words: Water Ecological, Security Pattern-Future, Land Use Simulation (WESP-FLUS) model, Urban-water coordinated development scenario, Water-ecological sensitive area, Water-ecological security, Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area

LI Pei, SHI Peiji, LIU Haimeng, LI Jie, WANG Ziyang. Multi-scenario simulation of land use spatial patterns in arid metropolitan regions of China with a coupled WESP-FLUS model[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(2): 100336.

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Data category	Data description	Sources
Base map	Administrative boundaries, major roads, and river network	Resource and Environment Science and Data Platform, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn)
Land use type	Land use/cover maps (2000, 2010, and 2020)	Resource and Environment Science and Data Platform, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn)
Water resource data	Gansu Water System Plan, Water Resources Bulletin, and Water Functional Zoning	Gansu Water Resources Department (https://slt.gansu.gov.cn/) and Yearbooks
Remote sensing image	Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager/Thermal Infrared Sensor (OLI/TIRS)	Geospatial Data Cloud (https://www.gscloud.cn/)
Topographic data	Digital elevation model (DEM)	Geospatial Data Cloud (https://www.gscloud.cn/)
Socioeconomic data	Population and gross domestic product (GDP) distribution	World Pop and Resource and Environment Science and Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences (https://www.resdc.cn/Default.aspx)
Nighttime light data	Nighttime light imagery	Xu (2022)
Groundwater level data	Groundwater level data for the study area (2020)	Wang (2024)

Indicator	Sub-indicator	Class	Level	Weight
Topography	Elevation (m)	1002-2100	5	0.016
		2100-3250	3
		3250-4510	1
	Slope (°)	<10.0	5	0.075
		10-20.0	4
		20-30.0	3
		30-40.0	2
		>40.0	1
Land cover type	Water body		5	0.537
	Forest land		4
	Grassland		3
	Cropland		2
	Urban built-up land and other land use types		1
Vegetation cover	Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)	0.8-1.0	5	0.157
		0.6-0.8	4
		0.4-0.6	3
		0.2-0.4	2
		0.0-0.2	1
Transportation infrastructure	Distance to the road (m)	>1000.0	5	0.173
		500.0-1000.0	4
		200.0-500.0	3
		100.0-200.0	2
		<100.0	1
	Distance to the railway (m)	>1000.0	5	0.042
		500.0-1000.0	4
		200.0-500.0	3
		100.0-200.0	2
		<100.0	1

Scenario	Cropland	Forest land	Grassland	Water body	Urban built-up land	Other land use types
Natural development	0.01	0.47	0.44	0.60	0.91	0.49
Urban economic optimization scenario	0.01	0.45	0.37	0.58	0.89	0.48
Ecological conservation priority	0.01	0.47	0.55	0.63	1.00	0.48
Urban-water coordinated development	0.01	0.35	0.53	0.56	1.00	0.23

	Cropland	Forest land	Grassland	Water body	Urban built-up land	Other land-use types	Total
Cropland	11,433.00	378.00	6571.00	107.00	487.00	114.00	19,090.00
Forest land	539.00	2491.00	1214.00	11.00	31.00	7.00	4293.00
Grassland	6817.00	1199.00	25,320.00	88.00	191.00	262.00	33,877.00
Water body	159.00	15.00	102.00	226.00	23.00	17.00	542.00
Urban built-up land	926.00	52.00	415.00	35.00	490.00	15.00	1933.00
Other land use types	141.00	13.00	274.00	4.00	5.00	375.00	812.00
Total	20,015.00	4148.00	33,896.00	471.00	1227.00	790.00	60,547.00

	Cropland	Forest land	Grassland	Water body	Urban built-up land	Other land use types
Actual	1,933,212	407,655	3,382,663	52,315	45,529	229,582
Simulated	1,903,677	439,377	3,398,205	49,992	33,894	225,811