Regional Sustainability ›› 2026, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (5): 100390.doi: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100390

• Research article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Linking land use and cover change to Sustainable Development Goals and carbon storage: A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

LI Mana,b, ZHAO Lina, HE Haoa, YU Huijiea, DAI Siyuana, Rathnayaka Mudiyanselage Dinesh Madhushanka KARUNARATNAAa, Abu Reza Muhammad Towfiqul ISLAMc,d, WU Donglie, LI Qia, HU Zhenghuaa,*()   

  1. a Jiangsu Provincial University Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology, School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
    b Hunan Yongzhou Meteorological Bureau, Yongzhou, 425000, China
    c Department of Disaster Science and Management, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, 5400, Bangladesh
    d Department of Earth and Environmental Science, College of Science, Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
    e Meteorological Observation Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  • Received:2025-08-16 Revised:2026-07-18 Accepted:2026-09-20 Published:2026-09-30 Online:2026-10-12
  • Contact: HU Zhenghua E-mail:zhhu@nuist.edu.cn

Abstract:

Land use and cover change plays a pivotal role in the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and carbon storage (CS). However, few studies have linked them within Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario frameworks. In this study, a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to analyse historical land use data alongside Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset-based SSP-RCP scenarios, generating detailed high-resolution land use simulations for the years 2030 and 2060. The three scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, represent low-, medium-, and high-emission pathways, respectively. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China was selected as the study area, where we assessed city-level SDG indicator scores and estimated CS through the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model. A Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to identify synergies and trade-offs among SDGs and between SDGs and CS. The results reveal notable disparities in SDG indicator scores across cities in the YRB. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the mean value of SDG 15.1F (forestland coverage) increases significantly, from 0.16 in 2030 to 0.23 in 2060, whereas under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the mean value of SDG 2.1 (land reclamation rate) is the highest among the three scenarios, and the value of SDG 11.2 (urbanization rate) reaches its peak of 0.23 by 2060. The ecological protection-oriented scenario leads to a marked improvement in CS, primarily driven by expanding forestland areas. Furthermore, synergies are observed between SDG 11.2 and SDG 2.1, while SDG 15.1G (grassland coverage) exhibits trade-offs with SDG 11.2 and SDG 2.1. This study provides an integrated framework that can aid in assessment of local SDGs and CS and offers valuable insights for the development of sustainable urban planning strategies amid future climate and policy uncertainties.

Key words: Land use and cover change (LUCC), Sustainable, Development, Goals (SDGs), Carbon storage (CS), Patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, Yellow River Basin (YRB)