Current status and recent changes of glaciers in Tajikistan

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100296

Abstract

Abstract:

Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers, which cover about 6.00% of the national territory; their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security. However, glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991, creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers. Based on glacier inventory data, in situ measurements, and published literature, this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation, literature collation and comparative analysis, and the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques. As of 2023, Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers, encompassing an area of 7624.48 (±305.58) km². Small glaciers dominate in number, whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area. Over the past two decades, the glacier count has decreased by 2014, and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km², corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%. Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10% to 22.28%. Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a; only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance. Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat, consistent with regional trends. In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan, focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring, enhance public awareness of glacier preservation, and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism. These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.

Key words: Glacier inventory, Glacier change, Glacier mass balance, Climate change, Tajikistan

XU Chunhai, LI Zhongqin, HE Zhonghua, WANG Feiteng, MU Jianxin, CHEN Yaning, Sheralizoda NAZRIALO, Farhod NASRULLOEV, Aminjon GULAHMADZODA. Current status and recent changes of glaciers in Tajikistan[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(1): 100296.

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River basin	Number	Area (km²)
Zeravshan	1181	530.91±21.35
Kafirnigan	562	104.62±4.21
Vakhsh	3182	3428.97±137.88
Pyanj	6603	3559.98±143.15
Total	11,528	7624.48±305.58

Glacier name	Latitude and longitude	Start year	Area (km²)	End year	Area (km²)	Change rate (%/a)
Akbaytal	38°27′00″N, 73°33′00″E	1970	5.50	2001	5.01	-0.29
East Zulmart	38°51′36″N, 73°00′00″E	2001	3.79	2018	3.66	-0.20
Oktyabr’sky	39°10′48″N, 73°00′00″E	1946	32.00	2000	9.67	-1.29
Medvezhiy	38°39′36″N, 72°10′48″E	1974	23.30	2000	23.48	0.03
Mushketov	39°00′00″N, 72°06′00″E	1966	17.10	2000	4.56	-2.16
Skogach	38°43′12″N, 71°30′00″E	1971	12.60	2000	14.48	0.51
Turo	39°31′48″N, 70°07′48″E	1968	4.10	2000	4.21	0.08