Greenhouse gas emission dynamics and climate change mitigation efforts toward sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100246

Abstract

Abstract:

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emssions from fossil fuel consumption are driving global climate change. This study applied the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model and pairwise panel Granger causality test to explore the relationships of GHG emissions with gross domestic product (GDP), population, urbanization, natural resource rents, foreign direct investment (FDI), and renewable energy consumption in 12 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Qatar, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia, and Yemen) from 1990 to 2023. Due to the limited data on renewable energy after 2020, the coverage of renewable energy consumption is from 1990 to 2021. Findings showed that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are the top 5 GHG emitters in the MENA region, with the GHG emissions of the energy sector rising fastest among all sectors. Results also indicated that a 1.00% increase in GDP, population, urbanization, natural resource rents, and FDI raises GHG emissions by 0.48%, 0.61%, 0.86%, 0.29%, and 0.11%, respectively. Conversely, a 1.00% increase in renewable energy consumption reduces GHG emissions by 0.13%. Effective policies promoting renewable energy investment and the adoption of renewable energy could significantly reduce electricity costs and GHG emissions, contributing to achieving climate goals, such as net-zero emissions and environmental sustainability. Additionally, the increase of renewable energy consumption and technology development would improve energy efficiency, create jobs, and stimulate economic growth in the MENA region. This study recommends tailored policy instruments to support the transition to low-emission technologies and strategies.

Key words: Climate change, Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Renewable energy consumption, Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Syed Masiur RAHMAN, Asif RAIHAN, Md Shafiul ALAM, Shakhawat CHOWDHURY. Greenhouse gas emission dynamics and climate change mitigation efforts toward sustainability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2025, 6(4): 100246.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 4.

Table 1

Table 2

Results of the pairwise panel Granger causality test of the impacts of driving factors on GHG emissions in MENA countries."

Null hypothesis (H₀)	F-statistic value	Decision on H₀	Causality direction
GDP≠GHG emissions	6.56^***	×	GDP→GHG emissions
GHG emissions≠GDP	1.82	√	GDP→GHG emissions
Population≠GHG emissions	5.57^***	×	Population→GHG emissions
GHG emissions≠population	1.76	√	Population→GHG emissions
Urbanization≠GHG emissions	6.02^***	×	Urbanization→GHG emissions
GHG emissions≠urbanization	1.53	√	Urbanization→GHG emissions
Natural resource rents≠GHG emissions	6.46^***	×	Natural resource rents→GHG emissions
GHG emissions≠natural resource rents	1.19	√	Natural resource rents→GHG emissions
FDI≠GHG emissions	5.75^***	×	FDI→GHG emissions
GHG emissions≠FDI	1.43	√	FDI→GHG emissions
Renewable energy consumption≠GHG emissions	0.13	√	GHG emissions→renewable energy consumption
GHG emissions≠renewable energy consumption	2.94^*	×	GHG emissions→renewable energy consumption
Population≠GDP	2.95^*	×	Population→GDP
GDP≠population	1.89	√	Population→GDP
Urbanization≠GDP	6.07^***	×	Urbanization↔GDP
GDP≠urbanization	5.55^***	×	Urbanization↔GDP
Natural resource rents≠GDP	7.32^***	×	Natural resource rents →GDP
GDP≠natural resource rents	1.05	√	Natural resource rents →GDP
FDI≠GDP	4.36^***	×	FDI→GDP
GDP≠FDI	1.11	√	FDI→GDP
Renewable energy consumption≠GDP	2.57	√	GDP→renewable energy consumption
GDP≠renewable energy consumption	3.84^**	×	GDP→renewable energy consumption
Urbanization≠population	1.23	√	Population→urbanization
Population≠urbanization	4.44^***	×	Population→urbanization
Natural resource rents≠population	1.95	√	Natural resource rents≠population
Population≠natural resource rents	1.24	√	Natural resource rents≠population
FDI ≠population	1.56	√	FDI≠population
Population≠FDI	1.27	√	FDI≠population
Renewable energy consumption≠population	1.39	√	Renewable energy consumption≠population
Population≠renewable energy consumption	0.58	√	Renewable energy consumption≠population
Natural resource rents≠urbanization	6.64^***	×	Natural resource rents→urbanization
Urbanization≠natural resource rents	1.94	√	Natural resource rents→urbanization
FDI≠urbanization	3.76^**	×	FDI→urbanization
Urbanization≠FDI	1.97	√	FDI→urbanization
Renewable energy consumption≠urbanization	0.64	√	Renewable energy consumption≠urbanization
Urbanization≠renewable energy consumption	0.95	√	Renewable energy consumption≠urbanization
FDI≠natural resource rents	2.50	√	FDI≠natural resource rents
Natural resource rents≠ FDI	0.88	√	FDI≠natural resource rents
Renewable energy consumption≠natural resource rents	0.72	√	Renewable energy consumption≠natural resource rents
Natural resource rents≠renewable energy consumption	0.49	√	Renewable energy consumption≠natural resource rents
Renewable energy consumption≠FDI	0.91	√	Renewable energy consumption≠FDI
FDI≠renewable energy consumption	2.43	√	Renewable energy consumption≠FDI

Table 2

Fig. 5.

Table 3

GHG emission reduction targets and renewable energy targets in 12 MENA countries."

Country	GHG emission reduction target	Emission reduction sector	Renewable energy target
ALG	Reducing GHG emissions by 7.00%-22.00% until 2030	Energy, forestry, housing, transport, industry, and waste sectors	Generating 27.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035
BHR	Reaching net-zero emission taget until 2060, with an interim goal of a 30.00% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035	Energy, forestry, and green building sectors	Generating 20.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030
COM	Reducing GHG emissions by 23.00% and increasing net CO₂ absorption by 47.00% until 2030	Energy, forestry, and waste sectors	Generating 40.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030
DJI	Reducing GHG emissions until 40.00% until 2030	Energy, transport, waste, and forestry sectors	Generating 100.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035
EGY	Reducing GHG emissions until 37.00% until 2030	Energy, transport, and waste sectors	Generating 42.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2035
QAT	Reducing 25.00% of GHG emissions until 2030	Energy, transport, and waste sectors	Increasing the use of renewable energy to 18.00% by 2030
SAU	Achieving net-zero emission taget by 2060	Energy and carbon capture utilization and storage sectors	Generating 50.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030
SOM	Reducing GHG emissions until 30.00% by 2030	Agriculture, energy, forestry, transport, and waste sectors	Increasing the use of renewable energy to 50.00% by 2030
SYR	No specific target for GHG emission reduction	Energy, forestry, land use, agriculture, transport, industry, solid waste, and housing sectors	Generating 10.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030
TUN	Reducing GHG emissions by 45.00% until 2030	Energy, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors	Generating 35.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030
UAE	Reducing GHG emissions by 40.00% by 2030 and achieving net-zero emission taget until 2050	Buildings, transport, industry, energy, forestry, and waste sectors	Increasing the use of renewable energy to 30.00% by 2031
YEM	Reducing GHG emissions by 14.00% until 2030	Energy, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors	Generating 15.00% of electricity from renewable energy by 2025

Table 3

Table 4

Climate adaptation plans in 12 MENA countries."

Country	Climate adaptation plan
ALG	Developing regional and local climate adaptation plans, updating regulatory and institutional frameworks, strengthening human and institutional capacities, establishing climate disaster monitoring and warning systems, and preparing for and responding to extreme weather events.
BHR	Bahrain’s National Adaptation Investment Plan (NAIP) outlines short- and long-term priorities based on current and projected climate impact. It uses existing risk assessments to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for vulnerable sectors, such as agriculture, water, biodiversity, and urban development sectors, focusing on challenges like sealevel rise, water scarcity, high temperature, and food security.
COM	Enforcing strict restoration regulations, promoting intensive agriculture, engaging women and communities in environmental decisions, and strengthening resilience to disasters and climate change.
DJI	Djibouti’s adaptation priorities are securing water during droughts and rainfall variability, protecting coasts from sea level rise, and strengthening rural resilience in agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity.
EGY	Water conservation across agriculture, industry, and municipalities will improve irrigation and water management. To meet rising drinking water demand, Egypt will explore non-conventional resources, build treatment plants, and recycle agricultural drainage and wastewater. Cooperation with Nile Basin countries will enhance the efficiency of water resource utilization. Agriculture will adopt efficient land management practices, including applying modern irrigation, boosting strategic crops and livestock biodiversity, breeding programs for extreme climates, and improving disaster management. Coastal zones will implement strategies for climate change risks, such as sea level rise and extreme weather. Urban development and tourism will focus on green architecture, climate resilience, flood control, and assessing the vulnerability of tourist sites, marine reserves, and archaeological areas. Broader initiatives include improving weather forecasting, strengthening healthcare readiness, and conducting research to identify vulnerable population.
QAT	Qatar’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) aims to mitigate climate change and enhance resilience. It includes over 300 adaptation initiatives and 35 strategies, focusing on economic diversification, capacity building, and resource optimization.
SAU	Saudi Arabia is advancing climate change adaptation and resilience by designing towns and infrastructure with integrated coastal management and early warning systems, along with implementing comprehensive water management plans.
SOM	Somalia’s NAP framework regards agriculture, energy, water, disaster risk reduction, and the environment as key sectors. Adaptation activities are projected to cost 58.50×10⁹ USD during 2021-2030. However, Somalia faces major financial, technical, technological, and capacity challenges. To meet its adaptation goals, the country will require substantial support, investment, and partnerships across short-, medium-, and long-term periods.
SYR	Syria currently lacks a formal climate change adaptation strategy.
TUN	Tunisia has various adaptation strategies for climate change, focusing on agriculture, tourism, coastal areas, and health. Climate change impacts agriculture in Tunisia, and many people live in vulnerable coastal areas are prone to flooding. Local communities are also implementing climate solutions, including harvesting rainwater, waste recycling, and energy-efficient streetlights.
UA	It is critical to identify climate change and its impact on agriculture, ecology, economy, water management, tourism, transportation, energy, and infrastructure. Urgent challenges include rising demand for water and electricity, declining seawater quality, coastal erosion, food supply pressures, and the decline in productivity from heat stress, allergies, and diseases. Addressing these issues and seizing opportunities requires an inclusive strategy that engages all sectors, builds on existing knowledge, integrates adaptation into policy, educates the public, promotes adaptive measures, and monitors outcomes.
YEM	Developing and implementing integrated coastal zone management plans, promoting water conservation through treated wastewater reuse, greywater use, and irrigation efficiency measures, launching a climate change adaptation awareness program, establishing and maintaining a climate change adaptation database, planting and replanting mangroves and palms to address sealevel rise, developing strategies to prepare Yemen for extreme weather events, implementing rainwater harvesting (including traditional methods, rehabilitating and maintain mountain terraces, supporting research into drought-, heat-, and salinity-tolerant crops), adopting sustainable land management practices to combat desertification and land degradation, ensuring sustainable fishery management, integrating climate change adaptation into school curricula, and creating a comprehensive “knowledge response” system for climate change (including forecasting, early warning, data collection, public awareness, and stakeholder engagement).

Table 4

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Region/Country	GDP	Population	Urbanization	Natural resource rents	FDI	Renewable energy consumption
MENA region	0.48^***	0.61^***	0.86^***	0.29^***	0.11^***	-0.13^***
ALG	0.52^***	0.89^***	1.13^***	0.42^***	0.03^**	-0.00^***
BHR	0.44^**	0.36^*	0.81^***	0.33^***	0.29^***	-0.00
COM	0.32	0.29^***	0.37^*	0.17^**	0.02^**	-0.83^***
DJI	0.37^*	0.38^***	0.82^*	0.13^**	0.26^***	-0.57^***
EGY	-0.02	0.94^***	0.66^**	0.21^*	0.19^***	-0.62^***
QAT	0.51^***	0.38^**	1.17^***	0.44^***	0.00^***	-0.00^***
SAU	0.66^***	0.76^**	1.11^***	0.56^***	0.07^*	-0.01^***
SOM	0.39^**	0.50^***	0.88^**	0.14^**	0.00	-0.69
SYR	0.41	0.43^*	0.78^*	0.18	0.00	-0.00
TUN	0.45^***	0.24^*	0.81^**	0.19^*	0.13^*	-0.34^**
UAE	0.61^***	0.49^***	1.06^***	0.35^***	0.24^***	-0.01^*
YEM	0.34^***	0.88^***	0.94^***	0.28^*	0.00	-0.12^**