Hydroclimatic and cryospheric changes in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan: A 31-a remote sensing assessment of Yashilkul Lake

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100329

Abstract

Abstract:

High-altitude glacier-lake systems in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan, are highly sensitive elements of Central Asia’s cryosphere and are vital for sustaining regional water resources. The Yashilkul Lake is located within a tectonic depression dammed by an ancient rockslide, forming a large alpine lake. This lake is currently impacted by intensified warming, glacier retreat, and poorly quantified hydrological shift. The primary objective of this study is to assess multi-decadal changes in the Yashilkul and Bulunkul lakes and their surrounding cryosphere between 1994 and 2024. The changes were analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys, complemented by in situ meteorological observations from the Bulunkul meteorological station spanning the period from 1990 to 2024. Glacier and lake boundaries were extracted from Landsat data, primarily by applying the normalized difference water index, supplemented by manual delineation. UAV photogrammetry characterized dam morphology and adjacent ponds, and climate trends were evaluated with the modified Mann-Kendall test. A significant warming trend of 0.096°C/a and pronounced interannual precipitation variability have driven persistent glacier retreat and lake surface area fluctuations. The Yashilkul Lake’s surface area decreased from 36.40 (±1.15) km² in 2010 to 31.94 (±0.54) km² in 2020 and partially rebounded to 33.99 (±0.60) km² in 2024, while the Bulunkul Lake’s surface area remained nearly stable owing to limited glacial influence. Additionally, UAV surveys conducted in 2022 and 2024 revealed main features of the Yashilkul Lake: rockslide-dammed origin, perched ponds along the dam body, and an artificial canal regulating its outflow. Nearby glaciers, particularly Glacier No. 369, exhibited strong frontal retreat and proglacial lake expansion. The proglacial lake expanded nearly fourfold from 0.08 (±0.01) km² in 2000 to 0.33 (±0.02) km² in 2024, raising concerns about potential glacial lake outburst floods that could impact the Yashilkul Lake and compromise the integrity of its natural dam. The findings highlight accelerating hydrological and cryospheric transformations in the Pamir Plateau, emphasizing the need for sustained monitoring of glacier-lake systems owing to their critical implications for water security, ecological stability, and downstream hazard management.

Key words: Climate change, Glacier retreat, Proglacial lake, Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Yashilkul Lake, Bulunkul Lake, Pamir Plateau

Majid GULAYOZOV, CHEN Xi, Mustafo SAFAROV, LIU Tie, Ali R FAZYLOV, Hofiz NAVRUZSHOEV. Hydroclimatic and cryospheric changes in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan: A 31-a remote sensing assessment of Yashilkul Lake[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(2): 100329.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1.

Table 1

Fig. 2.

Table 2

Fig. 3.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 5.

Table 3

Fig. 6.

Fig. 7.

Fig. 8.

Fig. 9.

References 55

[1]	Ali S., Saeed A., Kiani R.S., et al., 2021. Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 143, 193-209.
[2]	Banerjee A., Kang S.C., Guo W.Q., et al., 2024. Glacier retreat and lake outburst floods in the central Himalayan region from 2000 to 2022. Natural Hazards. 120, 5485-5508.
[3]	Banerjee A., Meadows E.M., Yadav N., et al., 2025. Glacier and glacial lake dynamics from 1990 to 2024 and their impact on flood hazard in the central Nepal Himalaya. Journal of Mountain Science. 22, 1926-1943.
[4]	Beniston M., 2003. Climatic change in mountain regions: A review of possible impacts. Climatic Change. 59, 5-31.
[5]	Camassa R., Eidam E.F., Leve L.G., et al., 2023. Extreme seasonal water-level changes and hydraulic modeling of deep, high-altitude, glacial-carved, Himalayan lakes. Scientific Reports. 13, 11705, doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-37667-z.
[6]	Compagno L., Huss M., Zekollari H., et al., 2022. Future growth and decline of high mountain Asia’s ice-dammed lakes and associated risk. Communications Earth & Environment. 3, 191, doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00520-8.
[7]	Debnath M., Sharma M.C, Syiemlieh J., 2019. Glacier dynamics in Changme Khangpu basin, Sikkim Himalaya, India, between 1975 and 2016. Geosciences. 9(6), 259, doi: 10.3390/geosciences9060259.
[8]	Fallah B., Didovets I., Rostami M., et al., 2024. Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections. International Journal of Climatology. 44(10), 3191-3213. doi: 10.1002/joc.v44.10
[9]	Farinotti D., Immerzeel W.W., de Kok R.J., et al., 2020. Manifestations and mechanisms of the Karakoram glacier Anomaly. Nature Geoscience. 13, 8-16.
[10]	Filipović S., Orlov A., Panić A.A., 2024. Key forecasts and prospects for green transition in the region of Central Asia beyond 2022. Energy, Sustainability and Society. 14, 25, doi: 10.1186/s13705-024-00457-0.
[11]	Furian W., Loibl D., Schneider C., 2021. Future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia: an inventory and assessment of hazard potential from surrounding slopes. Journal of Glaciology. 67(264), 653-670. doi: 10.1017/jog.2021.18
[12]	Gardelle J., Berthier E., Arnaud Y., et al., 2013. Region-wide glacier mass balances over the Pamir-Karakoram-Himalaya during 1999-2011. The Cryosphere. 7(4), 1263-1286. doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1263-2013
[13]	Guo W.Q., Liu S.Y., Xu J.L., et al., 2015. The second Chinese glacier inventory: data, methods and results. Journal of Glaciology. 61(226), 357-372. doi: 10.3189/2015JoG14J209
[14]	Han J.Q., Tu R., Lu X.C., et al., 2023. Analysis of BDS/GPS deformation monitoring for the Lake Sarez Dam. Remote Sensing. 15(19), 4773, doi: 10.3390/rs15194773.
[15]	Haq F., Shutkin T., Afreen M., et al., 2025. Cryo-social dynamics: the interplay of glacial dynamics and socioeconomic conditions in the Shigar Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan. GeoJournal. 90, 37, doi: 10.1007/s10708-025-11289-6.
[16]	He J.P., Duan K.Q., Li S.S., et al., 2024. Northward shift of Indian summer monsoon and intensifying winter westerlies cause stronger precipitation seasonality over Pamirs and its downstream basins in the 21^st century. Science of The Total Environment. 926, 171891, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171891.
[17]	Ischuk N., 2013. The origin of the mountain river dams in Tajikistan. In: MargottiniC., CanutiP., SassaK., (LandslideScience and Practice,eds.). Volume 6-Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation. Heidelberg: Springer, 13-17.
[18]	Khojeh S., Ataie-Ashtiani B., Hosseini S.M., 2022. Effect of DEM resolution in flood modeling: a case study of Gorganrood River, Northeastern Iran. Natural Hazards. 112, 2673-2693.
[19]	Komatsu T., 2016. Geomorphic features of the eastern Pamirs, with a focus on the occurrence of intermontane basins. In: KreutzmannH., WatanabeT., (MappingTransition in the Pamirs.eds.). Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research. Cham: Springer, 55-68.
[20]	Li Y.J., Li F., Shangguan D.H., et al., 2021. A new global gridded glacier dataset based on the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6.0. Journal of Glaciology. 67(264), 773-776. doi: 10.1017/jog.2021.28
[21]	Long H., Zhang J.R., Zhang S., et al., 2025. The westerlies-monsoon interaction shaped asymmetric lake expansions over the Tibetan Plateau in warming periods. Science Bulletin. 70(19), 3245-3254. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2025.07.023
[22]	Mergili M., Schneider J.F., 2011. Regional-scale analysis of lake outburst hazards in the southwestern Pamir, Tajikistan, based on remote sensing and GIS. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science. 11(5), 1447-1462. doi: 10.5194/nhess-11-1447-2011
[23]	Mergili M., Kopf C., Müllebner B., et al., 2012. Changes of the cryosphere and related geohazards in the high-mountain areas of Tajikistan and Austria: a comparison. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography. 94(1), 79-96. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2011.00450.x
[24]	Metrak M., Sulwinski M., Chachulski L., et al., 2015. Creeping environmental problems in the Pamir Mountains:Landscape conditions, climate change, wise use and threats. In: ÖztürkM., HakeemK., Faridah-HanumI., et al.eds.)., (Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems. Cham: Springer, 665-695.
[25]	Muhammad S., Tian L., Khan A., 2019. Early twenty-first century glacier mass losses in the Indus Basin constrained by density assumptions. Journal of Hydrology. 574, 467-475.
[26]	Muhammad S., Li J., Steiner J.F., et al., 2021. A holistic view of Shisper Glacier surge and outburst floods: from physical processes to downstream impacts. Geomatics, Natural Hazards Risk. 12(1), 2755-2775. doi: 10.1080/19475705.2021.1975833
[27]	Mukhabbatov H.М., Zhiltsov S.S., Markova E.A., 2020. Tajikistan water resources and water management issues. In: ZonnI., ZhiltsovS., KostianoyA., et al.eds.)., (Water Resources Management in Central Asia. The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry. Cham: Springer, 111-123.
[28]	Murodov M., Li L.H., Safarov M., et al., 2024. A comprehensive examination of the Medvezhiy Glacier’s Surges in West Pamir (1968-2023). Remote Sensing. 16(10), 1730, doi: 10.3390/rs16101730.
[29]	Navruzshoev H., Sagintayev Z., Kabutov H., et al., 2022. Surface area dynamics of Gunt River Basin mountain lakes (Pamir, Tajikistan). Central Asian Journal of Water Research. 8(2), 141-152. doi: 10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/141-152.eng
[30]	Nie Y., Pritchard H.D., Liu Q., et al., 2021. Glacial change and hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. 2, 91-106.
[31]	Niyatbekov T.P., 2008. Algoflora of Lake Yashilkul (Eastern Pamir). Representative of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan. 51(12), 844-847.
[32]	Nowak A., Nowak S., Nobis M., 2020. The Pamir-Alai Mountains (Middle Asia:Tajikistan). In: NorooziJ., (ed.). Plant Biogeography and Vegetation of High Mountains of Central and South-West Asia. Plant and Vegetation, 17. Cham: Springer, 1-42.
[33]	Pohl E., Knoche M., Gloaguen R., et al., 2015. Sensitivity analysis and implications for surface processes from a hydrological modelling approach in the Gunt catchment, high Pamir Mountains. Earth Surface Dynamics. 3(3), 333-362. doi: 10.5194/esurf-3-333-2015
[34]	Pohl E., Gloaguen R., Andermann C., et al., 2017. Glacier melt buffers river runoff in the Pamir Mountains. Water Resources Research. 53(3), 2467-2489. doi: 10.1002/wrcr.v53.3
[35]	RGI (Randolph Glacier Inventory) Consortium, 2017. A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines, Version 6. [2025-07-06]. https://www.glims.org/RGI/.
[36]	Rokni K., 2023. Investigating the impact of Pan Sharpening on the accuracy of land cover mapping in Landsat OLI imagery. Geodesy and Cartography. 49(1), 12-18. doi: 10.3846/gac.2023.15308
[37]	Safarov M., Kang S.C., Fazylov A., et al., 2024a. Estimating glacier dynamics and supraglacial lakes together with associated regional hazards using high-resolution datasets in Pamir. Journal of Mountain Science. 21, 3767-3788.
[38]	Safarov M., Kang S.C., Murodov M., et al., 2024b. Quantifying glacier surging and associated lake dynamics in Amu Darya river basin using UAV and remote sensing data. Journal of Mountain Science. 21, 2967-2985.
[39]	Scaini C., Tamaro A., Adilkhan B., et al., 2024a. A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 24(3), 929-945.
[40]	Scaini C., Tamaro A., Adilkhan B., et al., 2024b. A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 24(2), 355-373.
[41]	Schurr B., Ratschbacher L., Sippl C., et al., 2014. Seismotectonics of the Pamir. Tectonics. 33(8), 1501-1518. doi: 10.1002/tect.v33.8
[42]	Strom A., 2010. Landslide dams in Central Asia region. Journal of the Japan Landslide Society. 47(6), 309-324. doi: 10.3313/jls.47.309
[43]	Strom A., 2014. Sarez Lake problem:Ensuring long-term safety. In: SassaK., CanutiP., YinY., (Landslide Science for a Safer Geoenvironment.eds.). Cham: Springer, 633-639.
[44]	Strom A., 2015. Natural river damming: Climate-driven or seismically induced phenomena:Basics for landslide and seismic hazard assessment. In: LollinoG., GiordanD., CrostaG.B., (Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 2. Cham:eds.). Springer, 33-41.
[45]	Treichler D., Kääb A., Salzmann N., et al., 2019. Recent glacier and lake changes in High Mountain Asia and their relation to precipitation changes. The Cryosphere, 13(11), 2977-3005. doi: 10.5194/tc-13-2977-2019
[46]	Vasil’eva E.D., Nazarov R.A., 2023. Preliminary data indicate a wider distribution of the little-known Karakul Stone Loach Triplophysa lacusnigri (Nemacheilidae) in the inland waters of Tajikistan. Journal of Ichthyology. 63, 869-877.
[47]	Wang H., Wang B.B., Cui P., et al., 2024. Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges. Advances in Climate Change Research. 15(3), 367-389. doi: 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003
[48]	Wang Y.Z., Zheng D.H., Zhang G.Q., et al., 2025. Patterns and change rates of glacial lake water levels across High Mountain Asia. National Science Review. 12(3), nwaf041, doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwaf041.
[49]	White C.J., Tanton T.W., Rycroft D.W., 2014. The impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. Water Resources Management. 28, 5267-5281.
[50]	World Bank, 2004. Tajikistan: Reducing Poverty through Private Infrastructure Services—The Pamir Private Power Project. [2025-07-25]. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/468511468778533007/pdf/30-7980TJ0Pamir0Power01see0also0307591.pdf.
[51]	Ye Q.H., Wang Y.Z., Liu L., et al., 2024. Remote sensing and modeling of the cryosphere in High Mountain Asia: A multidisciplinary review. Remote Sensing. 16(10), 1709, doi: 10.3390/rs16101709.
[52]	Yu T., Bao A.M., Xu W.Q., et al., 2020. Exploring variability in landscape ecological risk and quantifying its driving factors in the Amu Darya Delta. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 17(1), 79, doi: 10.3390/ijerph17010079.
[53]	Yue S., Wang C.Y., 2004. The Mann-Kendall Test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resources Management. 18, 201-218.
[54]	Zakharov S.G., 2023. Water resources a factor of the geopolitical integration of Russia and the countries of Central Asia. In: BeskopylnyA., ShamtsyanM., ArtiukhV., (XV International Scientific Conference “Interagromash 2022”.eds.). Cham: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-21432-5_115.
[55]	Zhang D.P., Gu W.B., Esamdin A., et al., 2025. Characteristics of surface temperature inversion at the Muztagh-Ata Site on the Pamir Plateau. Atmosphere. 16(8), 897, doi: 10.3390/atmos16080897.

Purpose	Date	Product name	Resolution	Source
Glacier and lake area mapping	1 September 1994	Landsat 5 TM	30 m×30 m	U.S. Geological Survey EROS Centre (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/), Glovis (https://glovis.usgs.gov/), and Google Earth Engine
	24 August 2000	Landsat 7 ETM+	15 m×15 m
	22 August 2005	Landsat 7 ETM+	15 m×15 m
	28 August 2010	Landsat 5 TM	30 m×30 m
	27 August 2015	Landsat 8 OLI	15 m×15 m
	8 September 2020	Landsat 8 OLI	15 m×15 m
	3 September 2024	Landsat 8 OLI	15 m×15 m
Visual observation	11 June 2022	DJI Phantom 4	-	UAV field survey
Lake area mapping and dam morphology checking	30 June 2024	Micro UAV QC-2	26 cm×26 cm	UAV field survey
Topography determining	2000	SRTM v3 DEM	30 m×30 m	NASA (https://opentopography.org/)

Parameter	Sen’s slope	P-value	τ	Autocorrelation
Annual mean temperature	0.096°C/a	<0.001	0.353	0.675
Spring temperature	0.151°C/a	<0.001	-	-
Summer temperature	0.114°C/a	<0.001	-	-
Winter temperature	0.060°C/a	0.002	-	-
Annual precipitation	-0.300 mm/a	0.169	-0.067	0.042
Summer precipitation	-0.057 mm/a	0.734	-	-

Glacier No.	Area in 1994 (km²)	Area in 2024 (km²)	Area change (%)	Note
369	6.34±0.27	5.95±0.12	-6.09	Strong retreat, proglacial-lake contact, and about 860 m frontal retreat
378	9.79±0.32	9.67±0.17	-1.28	Land-terminating glacier and stable front
380	4.63±0.27	4.54±0.13	-2.10	Small cirque glacier and limited change