Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production in central Afghanistan

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100156

Abstract

Abstract:

Afghanistan has faced extreme climatic crises such as drought, rising temperature, and scarce precipitation, and these crises will likely worsen in the future. Reduction in crop yield can affect food security in Afghanistan, where the majority of population and economy are completely dependent on agriculture. This study assessed the interaction between climate change and crop yield in Kabul of Afghanistan during the reference (1990-2020) and future (2025-2100) periods. Climate data (1990-2020) were collected from four meteorological stations and three local organizations, and wheat yield data (1990-2020) were acquired from the United States Agriculture Department. Data during the reference period (1990-2020) were used for the validation and calibration of the statistical downscaling models such as the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG). Furthermore, the auto-regression model was used for trend analysis. The results showed that an increase in the average annual temperature of 2.15°C, 2.89°C, and 4.13°C will lead to a reduction in the wheat yield of 9.14%, 10.20%, and 12.00% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 during the future period (2025-2100), respectively. Moreover, an increase in the annual maximum temperature of 1.79°C, 2.48°C, and 3.74°C also causes a significant reduction in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 3.60%, and 10.50% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in the annual minimum temperature of 2.98°C, 2.23°C, and 4.30°C can result in an increase in the wheat yield of 6.50%, 4.80%, and 9.30% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. According to the SDSM, the decrease of the average monthly precipitation of 4.34%, 4.10%, and 5.13% results in a decrease in the wheat yield of 2.60%, 2.36%, and 3.18% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. This study suggests that adaptation strategies can be applied to minimize the consequences of climate change on agricultural production.

Key words: Climate change, Wheat yield, Food security, Representative, Concentration, Pathway (RCP), Afghanistan

Homayoon RAOUFI, Hamidreza JAFARI, Wakil Ahmad SARHADI, Esmail SALEHI. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural production in central Afghanistan[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2024, 5(3): 100156.

Figures/Tables 8

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Fig. 1.

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Fig. 2.

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Station name	Latitude	Longitude	Average elevation (m a.s.l.)	Average precipitation (mm/a)	Average temperature (°C/a)
Karizmir	34°38′20′′N	69°03′70′′E′′	1905	392.00	12.90
Kabul-airport	34°33′39′′N	69°12′38′′E	1791	197.00	14.10
Qargha	34°33′10′′N	69°01′55′′E	1970	360.38	12.60
Shakardara	34°40′51′′N	69°01′00′′E	2168	411.38	10.16

Month	Reference period (1990-2020)			Future period (2025-2100)
	Reference period (1990-2020)			RCP2.6			RCP4.5			RCP8.5
	T_min (°C)	T_max (°C)	P (mm)	T_min (°C)	T_max (°C)	P (mm)	T_min (°C)	T_max (°C)	P (mm)	T_min (°C)	T_max (°C)	P (mm)
January	-0.20	10.20	28.20	2.40	12.30	28.70	3.40	13.30	35.10	4.90	14.30	42.70
February	1.20	12.10	52.20	4.80	14.90	35.20	6.10	16.10	35.80	7.50	17.00	39.80
March	5.60	17.30	57.70	9.50	20.00	37.60	10.40	20.70	45.80	11.90	22.10	51.90
April	8.20	20.90	46.60	12.20	24.60	41.80	12.80	25.50	30.60	14.30	27.00	46.90
May	11.50	25.10	23.70	14.60	28.10	20.80	15.00	28.90	24.30	16.30	30.20	30.30
June	14.60	29.40	3.20	16.90	32.10	3.90	17.40	32.90	3.50	18.60	34.00	6.90
July	16.70	32.10	3.40	18.50	33.30	1.90	19.30	33.90	2.00	20.40	35.10	3.20
August	16.10	31.50	6.00	17.40	32.80	3.50	18.40	33.20	5.50	19.70	34.50	3.70
September	13.20	27.80	3.90	14.30	28.40	28.00	15.20	28.90	23.00	16.70	30.60	21.00
October	9.20	22.30	7.40	10.90	22.90	25.20	11.80	23.50	23.20	13.30	25.10	28.30
November	4.90	16.00	21.20	6.60	16.80	19.90	7.40	17.50	19.80	9.00	18.80	20.00
December	2.00	12.10	15.30	3.70	13.30	36.30	4.40	14.20	33.60	5.90	15.20	38.20
Average	8.60	21.40	269.00	11.00	23.30	282.70	11.80	24.00	282.10	13.20	25.30	332.90

Year	RCP2.6		RCP4.5		RCP8.5
Year	Average annual temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)	Average annual temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)	Average annual temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)
2025	1.23	-7.80	1.59	-8.30	1.95	-8.80
2030	1.18	-7.73	1.32	-7.90	1.68	-8.50
2040	1.44	-8.11	1.49	-8.20	1.85	-8.70
2050	2.41	-9.51	2.78	-10.00	3.53	-11.10
2060	2.40	-9.50	2.82	-10.10	3.59	-11.20
2070	1.88	-8.74	3.19	-10.60	4.66	-12.80
2080	2.54	-9.70	3.82	-11.60	5.37	-13.80
2090	3.10	-10.51	4.45	-12.50	7.24	-16.50
2100	3.18	-10.63	4.54	-12.60	7.31	-16.60
Average	2.15	-9.14	2.89	-10.20	4.13	-12.00

Year	RCP2.6		RCP4.5		RCP8.5
Year	Annual maximum temperature change (°C )	Wheat yield change (%)	Annual maximum temperature change (°C )	Wheat yield change (%)	Annual maximum temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)
2025	0.93	-1.35	1.09	-1.58	2.19	-3.18
2030	1.22	-1.77	1.08	-1.57	1.34	-1.94
2040	1.19	-1.73	1.26	-1.83	1.54	-2.23
2050	2.18	-3.16	2.55	-3.70	3.25	-4.72
2060	1.81	-2.63	2.23	-3.24	2.94	-4.27
2070	2.23	-3.24	3.59	-5.21	4.99	-7.24
2080	1.60	-2.32	2.95	-4.28	4.46	-6.47
2090	2.11	-3.06	3.42	-4.96	6.17	-8.95
2100	2.90	-4.21	4.22	-6.12	6.93	-10.05
Average	1.79	-2.60	2.48	-3.60	3.74	-5.45

Year	RCP2.6		RCP4.5		RCP8.5
Year	Annual minimum temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)	Annual minimum temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)	Annual minimum temperature change (°C)	Wheat yield change (%)
2025	1.14	2.50	0.90	2.00	1.72	3.70
2030	1.56	3.40	1.14	2.50	2.01	4.40
2040	1.72	3.70	1.69	3.70	2.16	4.70
2050	3.01	6.50	2.64	5.70	3.81	8.30
2060	3.41	7.40	2.99	6.50	4.23	9.20
2070	3.20	6.90	1.94	4.20	4.76	10.30
2080	4.06	8.80	2.84	6.20	5.65	12.30
2090	4.12	8.90	2.74	5.90	6.96	15.10
2100	4.62	10.00	3.22	7.00	7.45	16.20
Average	2.98	6.50	2.23	4.80	4.30	9.30