Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert, China

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2021.01.005

Abstract

Abstract:

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in river basin changes dynamically under climate change, economic development, and technological advancement. Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources; while economic development and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems. Under climate change, economic development, and technological advancement, it is of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins. This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system. This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the “climate, economics, and technology-control objective inversion model”, which used total water consumption, water-use efficiency, and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions. This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin, a sub-catchment located in southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert. The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated, and the trends in the short term (2020), middle term (2030), and long term (2050) were predicted. The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin, which leads to an increase in total water resources. Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect, while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

Key words: Climate change, Economic development, Technological advancement, Water resource carrying capacity, Keriya River Basin

Shuhong Yang, Tao Yang. Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert, China[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2021, 2(1): 73-82.

Figures/Tables 7

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Sub-region	Distribution	Area (×10⁴ hm²)	Description
IV-1	Middle and upper reaches of the Keriya River Basin	83.82	Areas above the Nunumaimaitilangan Hydrological Station
IV-2	Irrigation area in the lower reach of the Keriya River Basin	4.85	Areas below the Nunumaimaitilangan Hydrological Station
IV-3	Oasis area in the lower reach of the Keriya River Basin	277.23	Areas downstream of the Keriya River Basin entering deserts
IV-4	River areas in the east of the Keriya River Basin	17.71	Aqiang River, Pishge River, and Tamiya River
Total		383.61

Year	Scenario	Population (×10⁵)		Cultivated land area (×10⁴ hm²)		Industrial added value (×10⁸ CNY)		Carrying capacity
Year	Scenario	Actual/Predicted	Bearable	Actual/Predicted	Bearable	Actual/Predicted	Bearable	Carrying capacity
2015	RCP2.6	2.82	3.32	3.36	3.99	5.52	6.52	0.85
	RCP4.5	2.82	3.32	3.36	3.97	5.52	6.41	0.85
	RCP8.5	2.82	3.35	3.36	4.00	5.52	6.73	0.83
2020	RCP2.6	3.09	3.61	3.69	4.41	8.66	10.67	0.83
	RCP4.5	3.09	3.69	3.69	4.42	8.66	10.48	0.83
	RCP8.5	3.09	3.65	3.69	4.42	8.66	10.39	0.84
2030	RCP2.6	3.80	5.12	4.54	6.19	30.19	42.13	0.73
	RCP4.5	3.80	5.19	4.54	6.20	30.19	42.66	0.72
	RCP8.5	3.80	5.14	4.54	6.18	30.19	41.94	0.73
2050	RCP2.6	4.64	7.38	5.54	8.49	72.82	111.05	0.64
	RCP4.5	4.64	7.43	5.54	8.56	72.82	112.78	0.64
	RCP8.5	4.64	7.40	5.54	8.47	72.82	111.29	0.64