Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2021.01.004

Abstract

Abstract:

Danghara, a major food production area in southern Tajikistan, is currently suffering from the impact of rapid climate change and intensive human activities. Assessing the future impact of climate change on crop water requirements (CWRs) for the current growing period and defining the optimal sowing date to reduce future crop water demand are essential for local/regional water and food planning. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze possible future climate change effects on the water requirements of major crops using the statistical downscaling method in the Danghara District to simulate the future temperature and precipitation for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2051-2080), under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) according to the CanESM2 global climate model. The water footprint (WFP) of major crops was calculated as a measure of their CWRs. The increased projection of precipitation and temperature probably caused an increase in the main crop’s WFP for the current growing period, which was mainly due to the green water (GW) component in the long term and a decrease in the blue water (BW) component during the second future period, except for cotton, where all components were predicted to remain stable. Under three scenarios for the two future periods, a 10 d early sowing time was defined as an optimal sowing date, in which the WFPs of potato and winter wheat decreased from 5.7% to 4.8% and 3.4% to 2.2%, respectively. Although the WFP of cotton demonstrated a stable increase, according to the optimal sowing date, a decrease in irrigation demand or BW was expected. The results of our study might be useful for developing a new strategy related to irrigation systems and could help to find a balance between water and food for environmental water demands and human use.

Key words: Optimal sowing date Representative concentration pathway, Crop water requirement, Statistical downscaling method, Green water, Blue waterSouthern Tajikistan

Muhammadjon Kobuliev, Tie Liu, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Xi Chen, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Anming Bao. Effect of future climate change on the water footprint of major crops in southern Tajikistan[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2021, 2(1): 60-72.

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Crop	Planting date	Harvesting date	Average yield (t/hm²)
Potato	15 Nov^*	5 Jun^*	14.3^**
Cotton	15 Mar^*	10 Oct^*	1.7^**
Winter wheat	15 Oct^*	15 Jun^*	2.5^**

Variable	Predictor	Description of predictor	Partial R	P value
MaxT	p500	500 hPa geopotential	0.477	<0.0001
	s850	850 hPa specific humidity	0.422	<0.0001
	temp	Air temperature at 2 m height	0.718	<0.0001
MinT	p500	500 hPa geopotential	0.389	<0.0001
	s850	850 hPa specific humidity	0.407	<0.0001
	temp	Air temperature at 2 m height	0.677	<0.0001
Precipitation	p1_f	1000 hPa wind speed	-0.056	<0.05
Precipitation	prcp	Total precipitation	0.049	<0.05

Variable	RMSE		R²		DW
Variable	1975-1995	1996-2005	1975-1995	1996-2005	1975-1995	1996-2005
MaxT	1.661	2.158	0.973	0.957	1.525	1.637
MinT	1.491	1.968	0.968	0.946	1.651	1.382
Precipitation	2.642	2.487	0.649	0.546	1.948	1.556

Variable	Scenario	2021-2050		2051-2080
Variable	Scenario	Z-value	Significance	Z-value	Significance
MaxT	RCP2.6	3.99	***	-2.90	**
	RCP4.5	4.92	***	1.44	N
	RCP8.5	9.99	***	7.95	***
MinT	RCP2.6	4.38	***	-2.63	**
	RCP4.5	0.40	N	0.95	N
	RCP8.5	9.68	***	6.39	***
Precipitation	RCP2.6	2.10	*	0.84	N
	RCP4.5	0.30	N	0.58	N
	RCP8.5	1.60	N	-2.10	*

Variable	Scenario	2030s	2040s	2050s	2060s	2070s	2080s
MaxT (°C)	RCP2.6	0.24	0.23	0.38	0.51	0.49	0.32
	RCP4.5	0.25	0.33	0.41	0.57	0.67	0.66
	RCP8.5	0.26	0.56	0.81	0.88	1.24	1.45
MinT (°C)	RCP2.6	0.27	0.27	0.40	0.45	0.49	0.32
	RCP4.5	0.31	0.37	0.38	0.55	0.54	0.56
	RCP8.5	0.24	0.51	0.68	0.75	1.09	1.20
Precipitation (mm)	RCP2.6	8.67	7.96	8.97	11.65	8.06	13.41
	RCP4.5	8.27	5.79	10.18	11.86	10.16	10.75
	RCP8.5	10.19	10.22	12.44	10.25	8.72	8.21