Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.003

Abstract

Abstract:

In the arid region of northwestern China (ARNC), water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems. The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics. Moreover, the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand. All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region. This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources, hydrological processes, agricultural system, and desert ecosystems in the ARNC, and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area. The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31°C per decade during 1961-2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers, snow cover, and precipitation form, especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water. Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change, with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998, and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends. Furthermore, the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area. Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security. The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”.

Key words: Climate change, Hydrological processes, Desert ecosystem, Sustainable development, Water resources, Arid region of northwestern China, Silk Road Economic Belt

Yaning Chen, Xueqi Zhang, Gonghuan Fang, Zhi Li, Fei Wang, Jingxiu Qin, Fan Sun. Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2020, 1(1): 20-30.

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Region	Climate change risk to water resources
Eastern Xinjiang	Glaciers here are small and show a distinct receding. With the disappearance of glaciers, some rivers will present a “tipping point of glacier melting” in the near future. River runoff will decrease rapidly due to the lack of glacier meltwater supply, which is at great risk.
Northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains	Runoff of the Manas River will increase or remain at normal levels. However, hydrological fluctuations in some small- and medium-sized rivers will increase, raising the risk of extreme hydrological events from rapidly shrinking glaciers.
Southern Xinjiang	Large-scale glaciers are well-developed in the upper reaches of the Aksu River, the Yarkand River, the Hotan River, the Kaidu River, and the other large rivers. The runoff will maintain at a high level with fluctuations in the future. Also, the risk of glacier lake outburst floods in the Aksu River, the Yarkant River and the Keliya River will increase.
Hexi Corridor	The Heihe River and the Shule River will maintain a basically stable runoff level. However, rivers such as the Shiyang River, which are fed by small- and medium-sized glaciers, show a reduced stability and an increased risk of water resources.
Ili River Basin and Irtysh River Basin	Due to increased precipitation in the mountainous areas, runoff will continue to maintain a high level of fluctuation.