Water resources and sustainable management in Tajikistan under global change

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100291

Abstract

Abstract:

As a major source of freshwater in Central Asia, Tajikistan is endowed with abundant glaciers and water resources. However, the country faces multiple challenges, including accelerated glacier retreat, complex inter-government water resource management, and inefficient water use. Existing research has predominantly focused on individual hydrological processes, such as glacier retreat, snow cover change, or transboundary water issues, but it has yet to fully capture the overall complexity of water system. Tajikistan’s water system functions as an integrated whole from mountain runoff to downstream supply, but a comprehensive study of its water resource has yet to be conducted. To address this research gap, this study systematically examined the status, challenges, and sustainable management strategies of Tajikistan’s water resources based on a literature review, remote sensing data analysis, and case studies. Despite Tajikistan’s relative abundance of water resources, global warming is accelerating glacier melting and altering the hydrological cycles, which have resulted in unstable runoff patterns and heightened risks of extreme events. In Tajikistan, outdated infrastructure and poor management are primary causes of low water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector, which accounts for 85.00% of the total water withdrawals. At the governance level, Tajikistan faces challenges in balancing the water-energy-food nexus and transboundary water resource issues. To address these issues, this study proposes core paths for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable water resource management, such as accelerating technological innovation, promoting water-saving agricultural technologies, improving water resource utilization efficiency, and establishing a community participation-based comprehensive management framework. Additionally, strengthening cross-border cooperation and improving real-time monitoring systems have been identified as critical steps to advance sustainable water resource utilization and evidence-based decision-making in Tajikistan and across Central Asia.

Key words: Climate change, Glacial retreat, Cross-border cooperation, Water resource management, Tajikistan, Central Asia

CHEN Yaning, FANG Gonghuan, LI Zhi, ZHANG Xueqi, LI Weihong, Nekruz GULAHMADOV, Farhod NASRULLOEV, Aminjon GULAKHMADOV. Water resources and sustainable management in Tajikistan under global change[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(1): 100291.

Figures/Tables 4

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Resource category	Quantity/scale	Development status	Strategic significance
Glacier resource	A glacier area of 7.62×10³ km² with 13,542 glaciers	Monitoring and protection	Source of the main rivers and the climatic regulators of Central Asia
River system	A total of 947 rivers (>10.0 km) with an annual runoff of 52.20×10⁹ m³	Hydropower development rate at 3.00%-4.00%	Hydroelectric power, agricultural irrigation, and ecological maintenance
Lake and reservoir	More than 1300 lakes, with Lake Sarez having a holding capacity of 16.00×10⁹ m³	Low utilization and potential risk	Flood storage and a potential source of disaster (seismic risk)
Groundwater resource	The total reserves of 18.70×10⁹ m³ and the annual exploitation of 2.80×10⁹ m³	Underdeveloped status	Supplementary water sources for drinking and agricultural irrigation

Project	Implementing agency	Implementation area	Primary intervention	Performance metric
Tajikistan RESILAND	World Bank/Tajikistan Environmental Protection Committee	Ayni and Penjikent regions	Water infrastructure, rangeland management, and livelihood diversification	Increasing the irrigated area and agricultural productivity
KOICA’s Agricultural Modernization Project	KOICA	Rudaki and Hisor regions	Modernization of irrigation facilities and promotion of greenhouse technology	Benefiting 30,000 residents and building a 0.02 km² horticultural park
Groundwater Management Project	Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation	Agricultural region in the northwestern Tajikistan	Monitoring groundwater, updating borehole inventory, and building institutional capacity	Addressing the overexploitation of groundwater and enhancing the capacity for regulation and management
BeiDou monitoring system (Lake Sarez)	China-Tajikistan cooperation	Pamir Mountains	Monitoring dam deformation and assessing hydrological dynamics	Enhancing early warning capabilities for disasters