Regional Sustainability ›› 2025, Vol. 6 ›› Issue (5): 100259.doi: 10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100259
• Research article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Md Tauhid Ur RAHMANa, Adnan KHAIRULLAHb,c,*(
)
Received:2024-11-21
Revised:2025-08-31
Accepted:2025-10-15
Published:2025-10-31
Online:2025-11-06
Contact:
* E-mail address: kahirullahadnan11@gmail.com (Adnan KHAIRULLAH).Md Tauhid Ur RAHMAN, Adnan KHAIRULLAH. Integrating farmers’ perceptions and empirical climate data to assess agricultural productivity and food security in coastal Bangladesh[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2025, 6(5): 100259.
Table 1
Trend analysis of temperature using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator."
| Month | Maximum temperature | Minimum temperature | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z value | Trend | Significance at P<0.05 level | Q value | Z value | Trend | Significance at P<0.05 level | Q value | |
| January | 0.244 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.002 | -0.394 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.013 |
| February | 1.519 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.047 | -0.882 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.021 |
| March | 1.013 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.020 | -0.882 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.020 |
| April | 0.919 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.018 | 0.263 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.008 |
| May | 2.495 | Upward | Significant | 0.049 | 1.332 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.021 |
| June | 2.420 | Upward | Significant | 0.044 | 1.801 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.022 |
| July | 0.844 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.015 | 2.120 | Upward | Significant | 0.018 |
| August | 3.095 | Upward | Significant | 0.036 | 2.195 | Upward | Significant | 0.016 |
| September | 3.497 | Upward | Significant | 0.052 | 3.457 | Upward | Significant | 0.024 |
| October | 1.758 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.024 | -0.652 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.009 |
| November | 1.719 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.022 | -1.284 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.022 |
| December | -2.193 | Downward | Significant | -0.038 | 0.296 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.009 |
| Yearly average | 3.845 | Upward | Significant | 0.030 | 0.844 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.004 |
Table 2
Trend analysis of precipitation using the MK test and Sen’s slope estimator in Bagerhat."
| Month/Season | Z value | Trend | Significance at P<0.05 level | Q value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | -1.355 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.061 |
| February | -1.709 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.646 |
| March | -1.053 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.528 |
| April | 0.075 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.156 |
| May | 0.056 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.250 |
| June | 0.619 | Upward | Insignificant | 1.955 |
| July | 1.820 | Upward | Insignificant | 4.542 |
| August | 0.563 | Upward | Insignificant | 1.000 |
| September | -1.332 | Downward | Insignificant | -6.236 |
| October | -0.019 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.333 |
| November | -0.646 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.051 |
| December | 1.794 | Upward | Insignificant | 0.000 |
| Pre-monsoon | -0.769 | Downward | Insignificant | -1.650 |
| Monsoon | 0.657 | Upward | Insignificant | 3.750 |
| Post-monsoon | -0.131 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.417 |
| Winter | -0.470 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.219 |
| Yearly total precipitation | -0.131 | Downward | Insignificant | -0.932 |
Table 3
Summary of precipitation concentration index (PCI) and standardized rainfall anomaly index (SRAI) from 1991 to 2020."
| Year | PCI | SRAI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCI value | Interpretation | SRAI value | Interpretation | |
| 1991 | 15.93 | Moderate concentration | 0.08 | No drought |
| 1992 | 17.75 | High concentration | -2.19 | Extreme drought |
| 1993 | 14.88 | Moderate concentration | -0.25 | No drought |
| 1994 | 16.07 | High concentration | -1.01 | Moderate drought |
| 1995 | 13.55 | Moderate concentration | -0.42 | No drought |
| 1996 | 17.91 | High concentration | -0.36 | No drought |
| 1997 | 17.03 | High concentration | 0.91 | No drought |
| 1998 | 13.56 | Moderate concentration | 1.50 | No drought |
| 1999 | 17.42 | High concentration | 0.77 | No drought |
| 2000 | 15.06 | Moderate concentration | -0.41 | No drought |
| 2001 | 18.26 | High concentration | 0.07 | No drought |
| 2002 | 20.81 | High concentration | 2.67 | No drought |
| 2003 | 14.81 | Moderate concentration | -1.18 | Moderate drought |
| 2004 | 18.29 | High concentration | -0.50 | No drought |
| 2005 | 16.57 | High concentration | 1.48 | No drought |
| 2006 | 19.49 | High concentration | -0.58 | No drought |
| 2007 | 17.14 | High concentration | 0.17 | No drought |
| 2008 | 17.11 | High concentration | -0.76 | No drought |
| 2009 | 19.80 | High concentration | -0.66 | No drought |
| 2010 | 15.66 | Moderate concentration | -0.81 | No drought |
| 2011 | 20.30 | High concentration | 0.99 | No drought |
| 2012 | 17.94 | High concentration | -0.46 | No drought |
| 2013 | 16.77 | High concentration | -0.31 | No drought |
| 2014 | 16.81 | High concentration | -1.32 | Severe drought |
| 2015 | 25.25 | Very high concentration | 0.56 | No drought |
| 2016 | 18.51 | High concentration | 0.58 | No drought |
| 2017 | 16.10 | High concentration | 0.53 | No drought |
| 2018 | 19.20 | High concentration | -0.50 | No drought |
| 2019 | 13.40 | Moderate concentration | 0.10 | No drought |
| 2020 | 14.12 | Moderate concentration | 1.31 | No drought |
Fig. 7.
Suitability of Aus rice in different upazilas of Bagerhat. Very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, and not suitable in the legend represent the degree of agroecological suitability for Aus rice cultivation. The data were from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council at http://www.barc.gov.bd."
Fig. 9.
Suitability of Aman rice in different upazilas of Bagerhat. Very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, and not suitable in the legend represent the degree of agroecological suitability for Aman rice cultivation. The data were from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council at http://www.barc.gov.bd."
Fig. 11.
Suitability of Boro rice in different upazilas of Bagerhat. Very suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, and not suitable in the legend represent the degree of agroecological suitability for Boro rice cultivation. The data were from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council at http://www.barc.gov.bd."
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