Assessment of regional sustainable development progress and influencing factors differences across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100385

Abstract

Abstract:

The global pursuit of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development has faced significant challenges, with recent assessments indicating that only a minority of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are on schedule. Persistent methodological limitations in existing evaluation frameworks have hindered the precise identification of bottlenecks constraining sustainable development progress. This study described the progress made by the 131 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries toward achieving the SDGs during 2000-2022, and explored the key characteristics of factors influencing these countries’ SDG attainment. Using an improved SDG Index methodology, SDG scores were calculated for these BRI countries and the correlations between human development index (HDI) and SDG scores were leveraged to explore the classification characteristics of these countries. Ultimately, the gross national income (GNI) was selected as the stratification criterion, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was employed to screen key goals and targets. The results revealed substantial potential for SDG progress among the 131 BRI countries while highlighting significant differences in key influencing factors across different GNI levels. Public health related targets and infrastructure development often significantly impacted sustainable development in low-GNI countries, whereas institutional effectiveness, governance capacity, and global responsibility had significantly impacted sustainable development in high-GNI countries. Additionally, education level consistently exerted critical influence across all GNI levels, yet SDG scores remain suboptimal, necessitating proactive improvements. This study suggests that the BRI countries should explore differentiated policy pathways to achieve sustainable development and these countries can implement multidimensional assessment models to target reforms in their respective weak fields, thereby enhancing the sustainability and efficiency of their development.

Key words: Sustainable, Development Goals (SDGs), Belt and Road, Initiative (BRI), Countries, Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis, Human development index (HDI), Gross national income (GNI), Life expectancy index (LEI), Education index (EI)

CHEN Sihan, DING Weitong, GUO Munan, QU Aiyu, YANG Guang, WANG Fang, SHAO Chaofeng. Assessment of regional sustainable development progress and influencing factors differences across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(5): 100385.

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Period for joining the BRI	Country
2014-2018	Armenia, Belarus, Bhutan, China, Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, North Macedonia, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan
2018-2022	Afghanistan, Angola, Albania, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Azerbaijan, Burundi, Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Bahrain, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bolivia, Brunei Darussalam, Botswana, Central African, Chile, Cameroon, Congo, Cabo Verde, Cuba, Czechia, Dominica, Algeria, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Guinea, Gambia, Greece, Guyana, Croatia, Hungary, India, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Korea, Kuwait, Laos, Lebanon, Lithuania, Latvia, Morocco, Moldova, Madagascar, Malta, Myanmar, Montenegro, Mozambique, Mauritania, Malaysia, Namibia, Nigeria, New Zealand, Oman, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Poland, Israel, Romania, Russia, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Senegal, Sierra Leone, El Salvador, Somalia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Chad, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
2022	Benin, Barbados, Congo, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cyprus, Indonesia, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, Liberia, Lesotho, Luxembourg, Mali, Niger, Peru, South Sudan, Suriname, and Yemen

Socioeconomic classification indicator	Group	Sample size	Q1	Q3	IQR	Observed score range
LEI	H-LEI	33	56.94	69.06	12.12	44.13-76.60
	HM-LEI	33	53.50	66.72	13.22	48.47-67.97
	LM-LEI	33	45.64	53.11	7.47	36.29-67.29
	L-LEI	32	36.36	43.16	6.80	28.75-51.30
EI	H-EI	33	58.50	69.54	11.04	44.42-76.60
	HM-EI	33	53.84	60.41	6.57	44.30-67.06
	LM-EI	33	46.76	53.75	6.99	39.63-63.65
	L-EI	32	37.99	45.05	7.06	28.75-51.30
GNI	H-GNI	33	56.94	69.06	12.12	44.13-76.60
	HM-GNI	33	53.03	60.33	7.30	44.30-67.29
	LM-GNI	33	47.24	54.73	7.49	36.29-63.65
	L-GNI	32	36.36	43.16	6.80	28.75-51.30

Level	Number of countries	Country
H-GNI	28	Austria, Czechia, Estonia, Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, New Zealand, Slovak, Hungary, Luxembourg, Latvia, Italy, Greece, Korea, Malta, Lithuania, Israel, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Cyprus, Barbados, Saudi Arabia, Brunei Darussalam, Trinidad and Tobago, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait
UM-GNI	34	Belarus, Chile, Uruguay, Cuba, Costa Rica, Serbia, Fiji, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Russia, Thailand, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, China, Azerbaijan, Peru, Maldives, Kazakhstan, Dominica, North Macedonia, Turkey, Ecuador, Algeria, Jamaica, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, Namibia, Suriname, Panama, South Africa, Gabon, Venezuela, and Botswana
LM-GNI	36	Moldova, Vietnam, Armenia, Ukraine, Georgia, Tunisia, Bhutan, El Salvador, Jordan, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Guyana, Egypt, Arab, Bolivia, Cabo Verde, Mongolia, Philippines, Iran, India, Iraq, Ghana, Laos, Cote d’Ivoire, Pakistan, Mauritania, Lesotho, Cameroon, Zambia, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Congo, Djibouti, Angola, and Sudan
L-GNI	33	Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Nepal, Cambodia, Myanmar, Senegal, Rwanda, Kenya, Gambia, Mali, Guinea, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, Togo, Uganda, Benin, Burundi, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Liberia, Congo, Somalia, Niger, Yemen, Afghanistan, Chad, Central African, and South Sudan