Exploring uncertainty in the household water, energy, and food nexus: trade-offs and synergies in South Africa

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100355

Abstract

Abstract:

Access to water, energy, and food (WEF) remains a persistent challenge in many developing countries, particularly in rural areas where infrastructural limitations and socio-economic vulnerabilities intersect. At the household level, identifying the complex trade-offs and synergies within the water-energy-food (W-E-F) nexus remains a major challenge due to uncertainties and competing priorities. This study addressed this gap by applying partial correlation network analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to model the interactions and sensitivities of WEF-related decisions among households. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 655 households in the Amathole District Municipality (ADM), South Africa, using a mixed sampling approach. The analysis explored key trade-offs and synergies across the food-water (F-W), water-energy (W-E), food-energy (F-E), and W-E-F nexus dimensions. Findings revealed that income competition and transportation were major trade-offs, while solar pump use emerged as a significant synergy. Income competition had the highest node strength (0.872) and expected influence (1.117) in the W-E-F nexus trade-off network. Within the synergy network, the strongest node strength and expected influence were found for transportation (1.380 and 1.106, respectively) in the F-W nexus, good energy infrastructure (0.848 and 1.240, respectively) in the W-E nexus, and low energy cost (1.031 and 1.031, respectively) in the F-E nexus. Simulation results further indicated that income competition was highly sensitive to transportation and labour use, while synergies like solar pump use, good energy infrastructure, and low energy cost were most sensitive to changes in the use of modern energy, water saving technique, and use of modern energy, respectively. The study concluded that household-level WEF decisions were shaped by multidimensional trade-offs and synergies that were highly sensitive to resource access, infrastructure, and income dynamics. This study advanced understanding of household-level uncertainties in the W-E-F nexus and provided empirical evidence to inform policies aimed at strengthening household resilience and promoting sustainable governance.

Key words: Water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus, Household resilience, Trade-offs, Synergies, Partial correlation network analysis, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), South Africa

Thulani NINGI, Amon TARUVINGA, Leocadia ZHOU, Saul NGARAVA. Exploring uncertainty in the household water, energy, and food nexus: trade-offs and synergies in South Africa[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(3): 100355.

Figures/Tables 30

Fig. 1.

Table 1

Explanation of the trade-off indicators."

Indicator	Description	Expected nexus	Experiencing
Labour use	Difficulty in allocating household labour across competing water collection, energy procurement, and food production demands	W-E-F	Yes/No
Income competition	Financial strain when household income is insufficient to meet water, energy, and food needs	W-E-F	Yes/No
Soil erosion	Respondent’s awareness of soil erosion in the area, leading to reduced food production	F-W	Yes/No
Land degradation	Deteriorating land quality in their area undermines the capacity to produce food and retain water	F-W	Yes/No
Energy use for irrigation	Burden of energy consumption required to operate irrigation systems, recognizing the direct trade-off between energy cost	W-E-F	Yes/No
Electricity use	Electricity use and pumping water to process food and meet household’s energy needs	W-E-F	Yes/No
Transportation	Financial and logistical burden of transportation costs associated with accessing water, energy, and food resources	W-E-F	Yes/No
Irrigation system use	Irrigation as a mechanism linking water use and food production	F-W	Yes/No
Time allocated	Distributing available time across water collection, energy sourcing, and food preparation or production	W-E-F	Yes/No
Growing of wattle trees	Invasive wattle trees as a threat to local water availability through excessive water uptake, while also influencing biomass energy supply and reducing arable land for food production	W-E-F	Yes/No
Use of biogas	Biogas as an alternative energy source derived from organic waste, playing a role in reducing pressure on water resources and fuelwood demand	W-E-F	Yes/No
Land use	Tension in allocating land among water catchment, energy crop cultivation, and food production	W-E-F	Yes/No
Water use	Pressure in managing limited water resources across drinking and irrigation for food production	F-W	Yes/No
Capital constraint	Financial capital constraints that limit simultaneous investment in water infrastructure, energy access, and food production inputs	W-E-F	Yes/No
Agricultural inputs	Agricultural inputs (e.g., fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds) used to improve food and energy production (biofuel)	F-E	Yes/No
Deforestation	Local deforestation as a process that degrades water catchments, reduces biomass available for energy, and undermines the ecological foundation of food production	F-E	Yes/No
Animal waste use	Animal waste as a resource with potential energy value (e.g., biogas), agricultural input value (e.g., fertilizer) and implications for water quality	F-E	Yes/No

Table 1

Table 2

Explanation of the synergy indicators."

Indicator	Description	Expected nexus	Experiencing
Solar pump use	Using solar-powered pumps to improve water access for irrigation, reduce energy costs, and enhance food production capacity	W-E-F	Yes/No
Good water infrastructure	Having reliable water infrastructure to improve household water security and support food production	F-W	Yes/No
Use of modern energy	Using modern energy sources such as biogas or electricity to improve energy reliability, enhance food preparation, and reduce pressure on water resources	W-E-F	Yes/No
Water efficiency	Having reliable water to improve water access and food quality	F-W	Yes/No
Low water prices	Experiencing affordable water prices to improve water access and food production and quality	F-W	Yes/No
Irrigation water	Having access to irrigation water to improve food production reliability and reduce dependence on rainfall for household food security	F-W	Yes/No
Transportation	Having reliable and affordable transportation to improve access to water, energy, and food markets	W-E-F	Yes/No
Not paying for water	Accessing free or subsidised water to improve water access and food access	F-W	Yes/No
Use of biogas	Using biogas to provide sustainable cooking and food processing energy, reduce fuelwood demand, and generate slurry that improves soil fertility	F-E	Yes/No
Good energy infrastructure	Having reliable energy infrastructure to improve energy access and support food processing	F-E	Yes/No
Water saving technique	Practising water conservation such as rainwater harvesting to improve water availability and food quality	F-W	Yes/No
Low energy cost	Experiencing affordable energy tariffs to improve energy access and food processing	F-E	Yes/No
Agro-food processing	Accessing food processing technologies to improve food quality, reduce post-harvest losses, and support sustainable energy and water use	W-E-F	Yes/No
Additional energy sources	Having additional energy sources like wood to improve energy access and food quality	F-E	Yes/No
Electricity efficiency	Having reliable electricity to improve energy access and food quality	F-E	Yes/No

Table 2

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Variable	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
Age (a)	55	14	19	95
Household size (people)	4	3	1	38
Monthly household income (USD)	249.90	447.11	0.00	5239.52
Observations (sample size number)	655