Impact of climate change on agricultural production: A case of Rasuwa District, Nepal

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2022.07.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change is expected to threaten the developing countries the most. Nepal is considered one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. The mountainous area such as Rasuwa District in Nepal is more vulnerable due to complex topography, human activity (tourism), and climate change. In this context, we carried out this study to assess the climate change and its impact on agriculture production as well as people’s perceptions on the impact of climate change. The long-term (1980-2014) observed climate data (temperature and precipitation) and field-based survey data on people’s perceptions were analyzed. Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation trends. Furthermore, key informant interviews (KIIs) and focal group discussions (FGDs) were conducted to understand people’s perceptions of the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Further, ERA5 and APHRODITE datasets were used to compare the in situ climate data. The maximum temperature and total precipitation in summer monsoon (June-September) were found increasing significantly at rates of 0.07°C/a and 19.89 mm/a, respectively. But the minimum winter temperature and winter precipitation were found decrease by 0.05°C/a and 4.89 mm/a, respectively. Moreover, a large number of respondents reported a decrease in millet and wheat productions while an increase in potato production over the considered time duration (1990-2014). It is noteworthy that the respondents from the mid-elevation regions perceived an increasing trend in crop production compared to those from the low elevation regions. In recent years, people living in the high elevation regions of Rasuwa District have started to shift their cropping calendar to increase agricultural production. This study will provide useful information for policy-makers in formulating adaptation strategies in mountainous areas of Nepal.

Key words: Mountainous areas, Climate change Temperature, Precipitation, Agriculture production, Nepal

Binod DAWADI, Anjula SHRESTHA, Ram Hari ACHARYA, Yam Prasad DHITAL, Rohini DEVKOTA. Impact of climate change on agricultural production: A case of Rasuwa District, Nepal[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2022, 3(2): 122-132.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

Table 1

Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation statistics of precipitation (1980-2014), temperature (1990-2014), and agricultural production (1990-2014)"

Variable	Season	Sen’s slope	Kendall’s tau	Kendall’ P-value	Auto- correlation	Linear trend	Intercept	Mean	SD
P	Winter	-4.89	-0.29	0.03	0.09	-5.90	179.01	121.70	104.47
P	Pre-monsoon	-3.30	-0.10	0.49	0.35	-5.28	268.10	245.84	139.96
P	Monsoon	19.89	0.32	0.02	-0.17	22.19	1156.25	1509.78	431.39
P	Post-monsoon	-4.71	-0.31	0.03	0.06	-5.72	160.08	111.19	91.31
P	Annual	7.44	0.16	0.22	-0.16	6.39	1831.43	1985.38	436.96
Tmax	Winter	-0.14	-0.09	0.62	0.29	-0.06	17.77	14.55	1.74
Tmin	Winter	-0.05	0.11	0.53	0.35	-0.11	4.22	3.70	1.52
DTR	Winter	-0.04	-0.24	0.16	0.65	0.03	11.62	10.85	2.01
Tavg	Winter	-0.08	-0.19	0.26	0.05	-0.09	10.85	9.32	1.35
Tmax	Pre-monsoon	0.01	-0.06	0.74	-0.06	0.03	21.47	21.75	1.22
Tmin	Pre-monsoon	0.01	0.06	0.74	-0.14	0.04	10.68	10.62	1.60
DTR	Pre-monsoon	0.01	-0.14	0.38	-0.18	-0.01	10.86	11.10	1.61
Tavg	Pre-monsoon	0.03	0.03	0.83	-0.07	0.03	15.56	16.18	1.18
Tmax	Monsoon	0.07	0.29	0.08	0.21	0.07	22.47	23.97	0.75
Tmin	Monsoon	0.00	0.018	0.94	0.31	-0.01	15.85	15.78	0.63
DTR	Monsoon	0.08	0.17	0.33	0.15	0.08	6.60	8.19	0.95
Tavg	Monsoon	0.03	0.25	0.14	0.34	0.03	19.24	19.87	0.51
Tmax	Post-monsoon	-0.02	-0.15	0.38	0.09	0.02	19.75	19.61	1.37
Tmin	Post-monsoon	-0.01	-0.02	0.92	0.05	-0.01	9.81	9.60	0.76
DTR	Post-monsoon	0.01	-0.09	0.58	0.19	0.03	9.29	10.01	1.87
Tavg	Post-monsoon	-0.01	-0.09	0.58	-0.23	0.00	14.59	14.61	0.59
Tmax	Annual	0.01	0.02	0.92	0.20	0.02	19.78	20.17	0.99
Tmin	Annual	-0.04	-0.21	0.21	0.08	-0.05	11.17	10.52	0.77
Tavg	Annual	-0.01	0.00	1.00	-0.16	-0.01	15.59	15.36	0.64
DTR	Annual	0.06	0.00	1.00	0.55	0.07	8.21	9.66	1.24
Maize	Annual	43.26	0.38	0.01	0.08	50.30	2986.64	3624.92	647.37
Millet	Annual	-6.83	-0.22	0.14	0.23	-9.84	1185.25	1127.55	248.85
Wheat	Annual	21.66	0.27	0.07	0.37	20.30	1059.28	1297.02	290.34
Potato	Annual	690.68	0.41	0.01	0.68	821.93	15,801.89	24,279.03	7429.86

Table 1

Fig. 3.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 5.

Fig. 6.

Table 2

Fig. 7.

Table 3

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Perceptions of climate change	Proportion of the respondents (%)	Proportion of the respondents by age group (%)
Perceptions of climate change	Proportion of the respondents (%)	15-30 years old	30-45 years old	45-60 years old	>60 years old
Have not heard	62.86	50.00	64.29	63.16	61.54
Heard but not clear	30.00	30.00	32.14	36.84	23.08
Clear understanding	7.14	20.00	3.57	0.00	15.38

Crop	Earlier time periods		Recent years
Crop	Cropping time	Ripening time	Cropping time	Ripening time
Maize	3^rd week of March	1^st week of September	1^st week of April	3^rd week of August
Wheat	3^rd week of September	3^rd week of March	2^nd week of September	2^nd week of April
Millet	4^th week of May	3^rdweek of November	4^th week of June	1^st week of November
Potato	1^st week of February	3^rd week of June	1^st week of April	1^st week of August
Soybean	3^rd week of June	2^nd week of November	4^th week of June	1^st week of November