Regional Sustainability ›› 2020, Vol. 1 ›› Issue (1): 11-19.doi: 10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.002
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Haitao Maa,b,*(), Zhan Suna,b, Chuanglin Fanga,b
Received:
2020-05-07
Revised:
2020-06-28
Accepted:
2020-06-30
Online:
2020-01-20
Published:
2020-10-17
Contact:
Haitao Ma
E-mail:maht@igsnrr.ac.cn
Haitao Ma, Zhan Sun, Chuanglin Fang. Risk assessment of transnational oil investment in Central Asia using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2020, 1(1): 11-19.
Table 1
Index system for assessing the risks of transnational oil investment in Central Asia"
Primary index | Secondary index | Weight |
---|---|---|
Political risk | War and turmoil | 0.4012 |
Change of regime | 0.1070 | |
Government management | 0.0682 | |
International oil monopoly | 0.1658 | |
Foreign policies of powerful nations | 0.2578 | |
Regulatory risk | Establishment of mining rights | 0.4346 |
Host country intervention in operations | 0.2479 | |
Taxing system | 0.1482 | |
Stability of regulations | 0.1148 | |
Environmental protection requirements | 0.0546 | |
Economic risk | Economic growth | 0.1220 |
Foreign exchange rates | 0.6483 | |
Inflation | 0.2297 | |
Social risk | Ethnic, cultural, and religious differences | 0.1428 |
Terrorist activities | 0.5715 | |
Labor capital | 0.2857 | |
Infrastructural risk | Infrastructure, including transportation, water, and electricity | 0.1667 |
Oil transit pipelines | 0.8333 |
Table 2
Risk assessment indices and risk types of transnational oil investment in Central Asia"
Primary index | Score and type of the primary index | Secondary index and risk type | Risk property of the secondary index |
---|---|---|---|
Political risk | 4.5406 (general risk | War and turmoil (high risk ) | (0.175, 0.133, 0.225, 0.392, and 0.075) A 39.2% probability of a high risk |
Change of regime (low risk ) | (0.117, 0.358, 0.208, 0.258, and 0.058) A 35.8% probability of a low risk | ||
Government management (general risk ) | (0.075, 0.417, 0.425, 0.083, and 0.000) A 42.5% probability of a general risk | ||
International oil monopoly (low risk ) | (0.075, 0.492, 0.300, 0.133, and 0.000) A 49.2% probability of a low risk | ||
Foreign policies of powerful nations (low risk ) | (0.050, 0.492, 0.300, 0.158, and 0.000) A 49.2% probability of a low risk | ||
Regulatory risk | 6.1670 (high risk ) | Establishment of mining rights (high risk ) | (0.000, 0.083, 0.175, 0.683, and 0.058) A 68.3% probability of a high risk |
Host country intervention in operations (high risk ) | (0.000, 0.192, 0.100, 0.650, and 0.058) A 65.0% probability of a high risk | ||
Taxing system (high risk ) | (0.000, 0.142, 0.417, 0.442, and 0.000) A 44.2% probability of a high risk | ||
Stability of regulations (high risk ) | (0.000, 0.292, 0.117, 0.400, and 0.192) A 40.0% probability of a high risk | ||
Environmental protection requirements (general risk ) | (0.133, 0.183, 0.367, 0.258, and 0.058) A 36.7% probability of a general risk | ||
Economic risk | 5.4827 (general risk ) | Economic growth (general risk ) | (0.000, 0.283, 0.408, 0.308, and 0.000) A 40.8% probability of a general risk |
Foreign exchange rates (general risk ) | (0.075, 0.050, 0.467, 0.333, and 0.075) A 46.7% probability of a general risk | ||
Inflation (general risk ) | (0.075, 0.100, 0.408, 0.342, and 0.075) A 40.8% probability of a general risk | ||
Social risk | 4.8687 (general risk ) | Ethnic, cultural, and religious differences (high risk ) | (0.050, 0.108, 0.300, 0.300, and 0.242) A 30.0% probability of a high risk |
Terrorist activities (low risk ) | (0.058, 0.525, 0.217, 0.083, and 0.117) A 52.5% probability of a low risk | ||
Labor capital (high risk ) | (0.200, 0.242, 0.233, 0.325, and 0.000) A 32.5% probability of a high risk | ||
Infrastructural risk | 4.2186 (general risk ) | Infrastructure, including transportation, water, and electricity (low risk ) | (0.117, 0.408, 0.342, 0.133, and 0.000) A 40.8% probability of a low risk |
Oil transit pipelines (low risk ) | (0.150, 0.392, 0.133, 0.325, and 0.000) A 39.2% probability of a low risk |
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