Spatial evolutions and trends of the coupling coordinated development of environment-economy-tourism in China

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100393

Abstract

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of China’s strategic commitment to sustainable development, understanding the synergistic dynamics among ecological environment (EE), economic development (ED), and tourism industry (TI) at the provincial level is critical, yet this topic remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study constructs a comprehensive environment-economy-tourism (EET) evaluation framework utilizing panel data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions of China (excluding Hong Kong Special Administration Region, Macao Special Administration Region, and Taiwan Province due to missing data) from 2003 to 2022. Methodologically, this study integrates the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to quantify subsystem interactions, spatial econometric models to identify driving factors and spatial effects, and the Grey Model(1,1) to forecast future trajectories. Findings indicate a marked improvement in the provincial CCD of the EET system over time, showing an overall upward trajectory toward improved coordination. A distinct spatial gradient emerges, with higher CCD in the eastern China and lower CCD in the western China. Spatial effects constitute a dominant mechanism, with ED and TI serving as primary drivers. Projections suggest a continued upward trend in CCD in the coming years (2023-2030). Overall, this study provides valuable empirical evidence and an integrated analytical framework to support spatially differentiated policy design and advance balanced and sustainable regional development in China.

Key words: Ecological environment (EE), Economic development (ED), Tourism industry (TI), Coupling coordination degree (CCD), Spatial econometric model

CHEN Feng, LAN Yaxin, REN Jiao. Spatial evolutions and trends of the coupling coordinated development of environment-economy-tourism in China[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026, 7(5): 100393.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1.

Table 1

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Fig. 3.

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Table S1

Data sources of the statistical yearbooks of 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China."

Province, municipality, and autonomous region	Data source
Beijing Municipality	Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, 2004-2023)
Tianjin Municipality	Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Tianjin, 2004-2023)
Hebei Province	Hebei Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Hebei Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Hebei, 2004-2023)
Jiangsu Province	Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Jiangsu, 2004-2023)
Zhejiang Province	Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Zhejiang, 2004-2023)
Fujian Province	Fujian Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Fujian, 2004-2023)
Shandong Province	Shandong Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shandong, 2004-2023)
Guangdong Province	Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Guangdong, 2004-2023)
Shanghai Municipality	Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shanghai, 2004-2023)
Hainan Province	Hainan Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Hainan, 2004-2023)
Liaoning Province	Liaoning Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Liaoning, 2004-2023)
Jilin Province	Jilin Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Jilin, 2004-2023)
Heilongjiang Province	Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Heilongjiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Heilongjiang, 2004-2023)
Shanxi Province	Shanxi Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Shanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shanxi, 2004-2023)
Anhui Province	Anhui Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Anhui Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Anhui, 2004-2023)
Jiangxi Province	Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Jiangxi, 2004-2023)
Henan Province	Henan Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Henan, 2004-2023)
Hubei Province	Hubei Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Hubei, 2004-2023)
Hunan Province	Hunan Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Hunan, 2004-2023)
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region	Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Bureau of Statistics, 2004-2023)
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region	Guangxi Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Guangxi, 2004-2023)
Chongqing Municipality	Chongqing Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Chongqing, 2004-2023)
Sichuan Province	Sichuan Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Statistical Bureau of Sichuan and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Sichuan, 2004-2023)
Guizhou Province	Guizhou Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Guizhou, 2004-2023)
Yunnan Province	Yunnan Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 2004-2023)
Gansu Province	Gansu Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Gansu Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Gansu, 2004-2023)
Shaanxi Province	Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Shaanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Shaanxi, 2004-2023)
Qinghai Province	Qinghai Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Qinghai, 2004-2023)
Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region	Ningxia Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Ningxia, 2004-2023)
Xizang Autonomous Region	Xizang Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Xizang Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Xizang, 2004-2023)
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region	Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook 2003-2022 (Statistics Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Survey Office of the National Bureau of Statistics in Xinjiang, 2004-2023)

Table S1

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Subsystem	Dimension	Indicator	Causality	Subjective weight	Objective weight	Combined weight
Ecological environment (EE)	Ecological endowment	Per capita water resources	+	0.094	0.409	0.251
		Forest coverage	+	0.134	0.070	0.102
		Wetland area	+	0.107	0.163	0.135
		Green coverage ratio	+	0.121	0.117	0.119
		Per capita park green area	+	0.102	0.017	0.060
	Environmental load	Per capita water consumption	-	0.073	0.009	0.041
		Total industrial SO₂ emissions	-	0.112	0.018	0.065
		Industrial solid waste generation	-	0.086	0.010	0.048
		Collection volume of municipal solid waste	+	0.076	0.080	0.078
		Total afforestation area	+	0.095	0.106	0.100
Economic development (ED)	Economic growth and structure	Gross regional product (GRP) per capita	+	0.088	0.065	0.077
		Share of the secondary sector	+	0.109	0.014	0.062
		Share of the tertiary sector	+	0.097	0.041	0.069
		GRP index	+	0.096	0.009	0.053
		Total value of imports and exports of goods	+	0.069	0.207	0.138
	Residents’ life and consumption	Urban residents’ disposable income	+	0.083	0.069	0.076
		Rural household consumption expenditure	+	0.065	0.072	0.069
		Total retail sales of consumer goods	+	0.046	0.113	0.079
		Consumer price index	+	0.058	0.014	0.036
	Government finance and investment	Total investment	+	0.042	0.178	0.110
		General public budget revenue	+	0.088	0.107	0.097
		Tax revenue	+	0.158	0.111	0.135
Tourism industry (TI)	Tourism industry core	Number of star-rated hotels	+	0.097	0.143	0.120
		Operating income of star-rated hotels	+	0.166	0.294	0.230
		Total number of travel agencies	+	0.297	0.167	0.232
	Cultural tourism foundation	Number of museums	+	0.243	0.207	0.225
	Cultural tourism foundation	Passenger turnover	+	0.197	0.189	0.193

Research variable		Variable description	Unit
Explained variable	CCD	Subsystem coupling coordination value	-
Explanatory variable	EE	Ecological environment index	-
	ED	Economic development index	-
	TI	Tourism industry index	-
	Industrial structure (X1)	Ratio of tertiary‑industry output to secondary‑industry output	%
	Degree of openness (X2)	Ratio of foreign trade volume of goods to GRP	%
	Economic development level (X3)	GRP per capita	CNY/capita
	Government financial support (X4)	Ratio of fiscal expenditure to GRP	%
	Urbanization level (X5)	Proportion of urban population	%
	Innovation capacity (X6)	Number of patent authorizations	piece

Test item	LM-statistic	P-value	Test item	LM-statistic	P-value
LM-Error	27.683	0.000	Robust LM-Lag	59.598	0.000
LM-Lag	82.897	0.000	Hausman test	73.670	0.000
Robust LM-Error	4.384	0.036

Year	Annual average CCD
Year	Eastern region	Western region	Central region	Northeastern region	Entire study area
2003	0.372	0.259	0.327	0.305	0.313
2004	0.389	0.276	0.351	0.323	0.332
2005	0.395	0.284	0.358	0.330	0.338
2006	0.404	0.296	0.369	0.344	0.350
2007	0.419	0.315	0.388	0.361	0.367
2008	0.428	0.324	0.405	0.373	0.378
2009	0.430	0.326	0.398	0.376	0.378
2010	0.449	0.340	0.416	0.391	0.395
2011	0.459	0.359	0.436	0.409	0.411
2012	0.467	0.364	0.437	0.411	0.416
2013	0.482	0.368	0.447	0.414	0.424
2014	0.489	0.371	0.455	0.411	0.429
2015	0.499	0.374	0.456	0.407	0.434
2016	0.508	0.373	0.463	0.405	0.437
2017	0.520	0.384	0.474	0.414	0.448
2018	0.532	0.401	0.487	0.425	0.462
2019	0.535	0.406	0.498	0.413	0.466
2020	0.519	0.395	0.482	0.393	0.452
2021	0.506	0.401	0.491	0.388	0.451
2022	0.500	0.403	0.484	0.375	0.447
Regional average value	0.465	0.351	0.431	0.383	0.406
Annual growth rate (%)	1.016	1.024	1.021	1.011	1.019

Year	Global Moran’s I statistic	P-value	z-score	Year	Global Moran’s I statistic	P-value	z-score
2003	0.083	0.015	2.429	2013	0.071	0.029	2.185
2004	0.074	0.026	2.230	2014	0.074	0.025	2.235
2005	0.070	0.031	2.152	2015	0.069	0.031	2.161
2006	0.067	0.036	2.100	2016	0.074	0.024	2.251
2007	0.065	0.040	2.050	2017	0.076	0.021	2.303
2008	0.065	0.040	2.054	2018	0.060	0.051	1.953
2009	0.075	0.023	2.269	2019	0.058	0.056	1.908
2010	0.077	0.021	2.314	2020	0.072	0.028	2.199
2011	0.058	0.055	1.922	2021	0.074	0.025	2.235
2012	0.072	0.028	2.203	2022	0.057	0.060	1.883