Regional Sustainability >

2026 , Vol. 7 >Issue 2: 100336

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100336

Research article

Multi-scenario simulation of land use spatial patterns in arid metropolitan regions of China with a coupled WESP-FLUS model

  • LI Pei ,
  • SHI Peiji ,
  • LIU Haimeng ,
  • LI Jie ,
  • WANG Ziyang
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  • aCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China
    bGansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou, 730070, China
    cInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
    dCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
    eCollege of Management, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, China
* E-mail address: liuhm@igsnrr.ac.cn (LIU Haimeng).

Received date: 2025-07-16

  Revised date: 2026-01-15

  Accepted date: 2026-03-04

  Online published: 2026-03-17

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Abstract

Coordinating urban development with the protection of water resources is a serious global challenge faced by countries worldwide. This study constructed the coupled Water Ecological Security Pattern-Future Land Use Simulation (WESP-FLUS) model by integrating methods for identifying water-ecological sensitive areas and simulating land use type changes. Taking the Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area in arid region of northwestern China as a case study, this research simulated land use patterns in 2030 under four development scenarios (natural development, urban economic optimization, ecological conservation priority, and urban-water coordinated development scenarios). The results identified 109.81 km2 of water-ecological source areas and 43 water-ecological corridors with a total length of 1255.4 km. Predicted land use patterns for 2030 displayed diverse trends, constrained by water-ecological sensitive areas across different scenarios, with urban built-up land mainly expanding radially around the central urban axis. The urban-water coordinated development scenario was the optimal solution that meets both urban development needs and water-ecological protection objectives. The urban built-up land could reach 546.68 km2 in 2030, representing a 91.39 km2 increase compared to 2020. This study aims to improve spatial planning methods under the “determining cities by water” concept, scientifically supporting territorial spatial planning and providing theoretical support for the coupling of urban development and natural environment in water-scarce arid regions.

Key words： Water Ecological; Security Pattern-Future; Land Use Simulation (WESP-FLUS) model; Urban-water coordinated development scenario; Water-ecological sensitive area; Water-ecological security; Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area

Cite this article

LI Pei , SHI Peiji , LIU Haimeng , LI Jie , WANG Ziyang . Multi-scenario simulation of land use spatial patterns in arid metropolitan regions of China with a coupled WESP-FLUS model[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026 , 7(2) : 100336 . DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100336

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