Regional Sustainability >

2026 , Vol. 7 >Issue 2: 100329

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100329

Research article

Hydroclimatic and cryospheric changes in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan: A 31-a remote sensing assessment of Yashilkul Lake

  • Majid GULAYOZOV ,
  • CHEN Xi ,
  • Mustafo SAFAROV ,
  • LIU Tie ,
  • Ali R FAZYLOV ,
  • Hofiz NAVRUZSHOEV
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  • aXinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
    bResearch Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia (Dushanbe), Dushanbe, 734063, Tajikistan
    cCollege of Geoinformatics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310014, China
    dInstitute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, 734042, Tajikistan
    eMountain Societies Research Institute, University of Central Asia, Dushanbe, 734000, Tajikistan
    fState Scientific Institution “Center for Research of Glaciers of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan”, Dushanbe, 734025, Tajikistan
* E-mail address: chenxi@zjut.edu.cn (CHEN Xi).

Received date: 2025-08-29

  Revised date: 2025-11-21

  Accepted date: 2026-02-03

  Online published: 2026-03-17

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Abstract

High-altitude glacier-lake systems in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan, are highly sensitive elements of Central Asia’s cryosphere and are vital for sustaining regional water resources. The Yashilkul Lake is located within a tectonic depression dammed by an ancient rockslide, forming a large alpine lake. This lake is currently impacted by intensified warming, glacier retreat, and poorly quantified hydrological shift. The primary objective of this study is to assess multi-decadal changes in the Yashilkul and Bulunkul lakes and their surrounding cryosphere between 1994 and 2024. The changes were analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys, complemented by in situ meteorological observations from the Bulunkul meteorological station spanning the period from 1990 to 2024. Glacier and lake boundaries were extracted from Landsat data, primarily by applying the normalized difference water index, supplemented by manual delineation. UAV photogrammetry characterized dam morphology and adjacent ponds, and climate trends were evaluated with the modified Mann-Kendall test. A significant warming trend of 0.096°C/a and pronounced interannual precipitation variability have driven persistent glacier retreat and lake surface area fluctuations. The Yashilkul Lake’s surface area decreased from 36.40 (±1.15) km2 in 2010 to 31.94 (±0.54) km2 in 2020 and partially rebounded to 33.99 (±0.60) km2 in 2024, while the Bulunkul Lake’s surface area remained nearly stable owing to limited glacial influence. Additionally, UAV surveys conducted in 2022 and 2024 revealed main features of the Yashilkul Lake: rockslide-dammed origin, perched ponds along the dam body, and an artificial canal regulating its outflow. Nearby glaciers, particularly Glacier No. 369, exhibited strong frontal retreat and proglacial lake expansion. The proglacial lake expanded nearly fourfold from 0.08 (±0.01) km2 in 2000 to 0.33 (±0.02) km2 in 2024, raising concerns about potential glacial lake outburst floods that could impact the Yashilkul Lake and compromise the integrity of its natural dam. The findings highlight accelerating hydrological and cryospheric transformations in the Pamir Plateau, emphasizing the need for sustained monitoring of glacier-lake systems owing to their critical implications for water security, ecological stability, and downstream hazard management.

Key words： Climate change; Glacier retreat; Proglacial lake; Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Yashilkul Lake; Bulunkul Lake; Pamir Plateau

Cite this article

Majid GULAYOZOV , CHEN Xi , Mustafo SAFAROV , LIU Tie , Ali R FAZYLOV , Hofiz NAVRUZSHOEV . Hydroclimatic and cryospheric changes in the eastern Pamir Plateau, Tajikistan: A 31-a remote sensing assessment of Yashilkul Lake[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2026 , 7(2) : 100329 . DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2026.100329

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