Dual impact of digitalization on the carbon emissions of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations in China: A spatiotemporal perspective

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100263

Abstract

Abstract:

Digital transformation, as a recent trend in socioeconomic development, is considered as a critical pathway for urban carbon reduction because of its potential to increase productivity and energy efficiency. However, few studies have explored the relationship between urban digitalization and carbon emissions (CE). Therefore, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and interaction mechanism between digitalization and CE in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations of China during 2006-2020 based on a multidimensional indicator system, including digitalization industry level, digitalization application level, and urban green digitalization willingness. The findings revealed that both digitalization and CE in the YRD exhibit a significant and synchronously evolving “core-periphery” spatial pattern. Core cities generated substantial positive spillover effect on periphery cities through technology diffusion and policy demonstration, advancing both regional digitalization and the collaborative governance of CE. However, digitalization had dual impact on CE. On the one hand, it promoted the reduction of CE by enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing industrial structures, and promoting the application of green technologies. On the other hand, the expansion of digital infrastructure introduced a potential risk of increased energy consumption. Therefore, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to facilitate the coordination of environmental sustainability and digitalization in the YRD. This study provides empirical support and policy insights for advancing the coordinated development of regional digital transformation and green low-carbon initiatives.

Key words: Carbon emissions, Digitalization industry level, Digitalization application level, Urban green digitalization willingness, “Core-periphery” spatial pattern, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

WEI Meng, RU Lifei, CAI Zhi, MA Minda. Dual impact of digitalization on the carbon emissions of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations in China: A spatiotemporal perspective[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2025, 6(5): 100263.

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Indicator	Sub-indicator	Description	Reference	Unit
Digitalization industry level	Telecommunications output	Total volume of telecommunications services per capita	Yang et al. (2022); Zhang et al. (2022c); Bai et al. (2023)	10⁴ CNY
	Long-haul fiber optic cable line density	Ratio of the length of long-distance fiber optic cable line to the area of the administrative region	Yang et al. (2022)	km/km²
	Digital industry talent	Percentage of employees in computer services and software	Yang et al. (2022); Zhang et al. (2022c); Bai et al. (2023)	%
Digitalization application level	Internet application	Internet users per 100 persons	Yang et al. (2022); Zhang et al. (2022c); Xie et al. (2024)	%
	Mobile Internet application	Cell phone subscribers per 100 persons	Zhang et al. (2022c); Bai et al. (2023); Xie et al. (2024)	%
	Digital inclusive finance index	Digital finance digitization index	Liu et al. (2022a); Zhang et al. (2022c); Xie et al. (2024)	-
Urban green digitalization willingness	Environmental regulation	Percentage of investment in environmental pollution control in the gross domestic product (GDP)	Schnebelin et al. (2021); Wen et al. (2022)	%
	Government digital awareness	Digital word frequency of government reports	Giest (2017); Su et al. (2020); Xie and Wu (2024)	-
	Science and technology focus	Percentage of science spending in the GDP	Tang et al. (2021); Liu et al. (2022a)	%
	Level of green technology	Percentage of green inventions among the total annual inventions filed in the region	Yang et al. (2022); Bai et al. (2023)	%

Year	Moran’s I	Z value	Year	Moran’s I	Z value
2006	0.181^***	2.591	2014	0.142^*	1.855
2007	0.191^***	2.686	2015	0.102	1.388
2008	0.195^***	2.648	2016	0.157^**	2.039
2009	0.213^***	2.663	2017	0.183^***	2.328
2010	0.205^**	2.542	2018	0.231^***	2.877
2011	0.192^**	2.424	2019	0.244^***	2.980
2012	0.175^**	2.219	2020	0.192^**	3.357
2013	0.159^**	2.053

Indicator	Direct effect			Indirect effect
Indicator	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020
Digitalization industry level	0.0047	0.0197	-0.1870	-0.0589	-0.0058	-0.7600^**
Digitalization application level	-0.0111	-0.0039	0.3350^**	-0.0005	0.0306	0.7580^**
Urban green digitalization willingness	-0.0066	-0.0198^**	0.0105	0.0184	-0.0223	0.1230

Indicator	Sub-indicator	Weight value
Indicator	Sub-indicator	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020
Digitalization industry level	Telecommunications output	-0.0555^*	0.0050	0.2640^**
	Long-haul fiber optic cable line density	-0.0190	0.0481^***	-0.0159
	Digital industry talent	0.0130	0.0013	-0.1350^*
Digitalization application level	Internet application	0.1090	-0.0189	0.2960
	Mobile Internet application	-0.0410	0.0116	0.1110
	Digital inclusive finance index	-0.2120	0.0130	-0.3200
Urban green digitalization willingness	Environmental regulation	-0.0046	-0.0021	0.0571
	Government digital awareness	0.0283	-0.0097^*	-0.0592
	Science and technology focus	-0.0423^*	-0.0287	-0.0091
	Level of green technology	-0.0134^*	-0.0306^**	-0.1210

Indicator	Sub-indicator	Weight value
Indicator	Sub-indicator	2006-2010	2011-2015	2016-2020
Digitalization industry level	Telecommunications output	0.0987	0.0248	-0.0281
	Long-haul fiber optic cable line density	-0.0057	0.0368	-0.4390^***
	Digital industry talent	-0.0418^*	0.0003	-0.1120
Digitalization application level	Internet application	-0.0427	-0.0489	-2.5190^**
	Mobile Internet application	0.1240	-0.0076	0.2190
	Digital inclusive finance index	-0.6750	0.0432	3.2840^***
Urban green digitalization willingness	Environmental regulation	0.0081	-0.0082	-0.0193
	Government digital awareness	-0.0186	-0.0426^**	0.2620^***
	Science and technology focus	0.0910^*	-0.0364	0.1520
	Level of green technology	0.0219	0.0190	0.0443