Regional Sustainability >

2020 , Vol. 1 >Issue 1: 37 - 47

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.001

Assessment of ecosystem services value in response to prevailing and future land use/cover changes in Lahore, Pakistan

  • Mobeen Akhtar ,
  • Yuanyuan Zhao ,
  • Guanglei Gao ,
  • Qudsia Gulzar ,
  • Azfar Hussain ,
  • Abdus Samie
Expand
  • aKey Laboratory of State Forestry Administration on Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    bYanchi Research Station, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    cCentre for Geographic Information Systems, University of the Punjab, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
    dInstitute of Agriculture & Resource Economics (IARE), University of Agriculture, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan;

Received date: 2020-03-16

  Revised date: 2020-06-06

  Accepted date: 2020-06-19

  Online published: 2020-09-30

Fold

Abstract

Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) significantly affect ecosystem services (ESs) and their corresponding monetary value. ESs can be evaluated to analyze the ecological and environmental changes caused by LUCCs. This research aims to estimate variations in the ecosystem services value (ESV) due to LUCCs in Lahore of Pakistan, and to offer information and recommendations to policy-makers concerned with the economic improvement of metropolis areas. We first investigated the historical LUCCs from 1990 to 2019, and then simulated the future land use/cover in 2030 and 2050 based on the CA-Markov model under three scenarios, including business-as-usual (BAU), rapid economic growth (REG), and coordinated environmental sustainability (CES). Subsequently, we evaluated the ESV from 1990 to 2050 and evaluated the historical and potential future ESV changes induced by LUCCs during 1990-2019 and 2019-2050, respectively. The results showed that, land use/cover exhibited an increase in built-up land and decreases in vegetation, water body, and unused land both in the past and future. The net ESV decreased from 58.26 million USD in 1990 to 50.31 million USD in 2019. In 2050, the decrease in ESV is most rapid under the REG scenario (decrease ESV of 7.13 million USD and decrease percentage of 14.18%), followed by the BAU (decrease ESV of 5.61 million USD and decrease percentage of 11.15%) and CES (decrease ESV of 5.18 million USD and decrease percentage of 10.30%) scenarios. For each ecosystem service type, the ESV of waste treatment decreased by 18.37% from 1990 to 2019, followed by soil formation and conservation (17.52%), biodiversity and maintenance (13.23%), climate regulation (11.80%), food production (11.69%), hydrological regulation (11.11%), and aesthetic value (3.07%). These outcomes indicate that continuous land use/cover planning should focus on regenerating aquatic areas and vegetation restoration.

Key words： Ecosystem services; Land use/cover changes; Environmental sustainability; CA Markov; Urban expansion; Value coefficient

Cite this article

Mobeen Akhtar , Yuanyuan Zhao , Guanglei Gao , Qudsia Gulzar , Azfar Hussain , Abdus Samie . Assessment of ecosystem services value in response to prevailing and future land use/cover changes in Lahore, Pakistan[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2020 , 1(1) : 37 -47 . DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2020.06.001

References

[1] Akbar, T.A., Hassan, Q.K., Ishaq, S ., et al., 2019. Investigative spatial distribution and modelling of existing and future urban land changes and its impact on urbanization and economy. Remote. Sens. 11(2), 105. doi: 10.3390/rs11020105.
[2] Arowolo, A.O., Deng, X., Olatunji, O.A ., et al., 2018. Assessing changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. Sci. Total Environ. 636, 597-609.
[3] Assessment, M.E . 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Washington D.C.: Island press Washington, 1-212.
[4] Chen, L.P., Sun, Y.J., S., Saeed, S ., et al., 2018. Monitoring and predicting land use and land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques-A case study of a hilly area, Jiangle, China. PLoS ONE. 13, e0200493. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200493.
[5] Chi, W.F., Zhao, Y.Y., Kuang, W.H ., et al., 2019. Impacts of anthropogenic land use/cover changes on soil wind erosion in China. Sci. Total Environ. 668, 204-215.
[6] Costanza, R., d’Arge, R., De Groot, R ., et al., 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature. 387, 253.
[7] Costanza, R., d’Arge, R., de Groot, R ., et al., 1998. The value of ecosystem services: putting the issues in perspective. Ecol. Econ. 25, 67-72.
[8] Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P ., et al., 2014. Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Glob. Environ. Chang. 26, 152-158.
[9] Daily, G.C. , 1997. Nature’s Services. Washington DC: Island Press, 1-412.
[10] de Groot, R., Wilson, M.A., Boumans, R.M ., et al., 2002. A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecol. Econ. 41, 393-408.
[11] de Groot, R., Brander, L., Van Der Ploeg, S ., et al., 2012. Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units. Ecosyst. Serv. 1(1), 50-61.
[12] Dominati, E., Patterson, M., Mackay, A ., et al., 2010. A framework for classifying and quantifying the natural capital and ecosystem services of soils. Ecol. Econ. 69, 1858-1868.
[13] Eigenbrod, F., Bell, V.A., Davies, H.N ., et al., 2011. The impact of projected increases in urbanization on ecosystem services. P Roy Soc B-Biol Sci. 278(1722), 3201-3208.
[14] Elmqvist, T., Maltby, E., Barker, T. , et al., 2010. Biodiversity, ecosystems and ecosystem services. In: Kumar, P. (Ed.). The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations. London: Earthscan, 41-111.
[15] Hasan, S.S., Deng, X.Z., Li, Z.H ., et al., 2017. Projections of future land use in Bangladesh under the background of baseline, ecological protection and economic development. Sustainability. 17(9), 505. doi: 10.3390/su9040505.
[16] Hu, H.B., Liu, W.J., Cao, M ., et al., 2008. Impact of land use and land cover changes on ecosystem services in Menglun, Xishuangbanna, Southwest China. Environ. Monit. Assess. 146, 147-156.
[17] Kindu, M., Schneider, T., Teketay, D ., et al., 2016. Changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands. Sci. Total Environ. 547, 137-147.
[18] Li, H.L., Wang, S.L., Ji, G.L ., et al., 2011. Changes in land use and ecosystem service values in Jinan, China. Energy Procedia. 5, 1109-1115. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.195.
[19] Li, J.Y., Chen, H.X., Zhang, C. , et al., 2019. Variations in ecosystem service value in response to land use/land cover changes in Central Asia over 1995-2035. In: PeerJ Preprints. doi: 10.7287/peerj.preprints.27645.
[20] Li, R.Q., Dong, M., Cui, J.Y ., et al., 2007. Quantification of the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services: a case study in Pingbian County, China. Environ. Monit. Assess. 128, 503-510.
[21] Li, X.Q., Wang, M.Z., Liu, X.J ., et al., 2018. Mcr-modified ca-markov model for the simulation of urban expansion. Sustainability. 10(9), 3116. doi: 10.3390/su10093116.
[22] Najmuddin, O., Deng, X., Siqi, J ., et al., 2017. Scenario analysis of land use change in Kabul river basin-a river basin with rapid socio-economic changes in Afghanistan. Phys. Chem. Earth. 101, 121-136.
[23] Nelson, E., Sander, H., Hawthorne, P ., et al., 2010. Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models. PLoS ONE. 5(12), e14327. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014327.
[24] Samie, A., Abbas, A., Azeem, M.M ., et al., 2020. Examining the impacts of future land use/land cover changes on climate in Punjab province, Pakistan: implications for environmental sustainability and economic growth. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 27, 25415-25433.
[25] Sannigrahi, S., Bhatt, S., Rahmat, S ., et al., 2018. Estimating global ecosystem service values and its response to land surface dynamics during 1995-2015. J. Environ. Manage. 223, 115-131.
[26] Sch?gner, J.P., Brander, L., Maes, J ., et al., 2013. Mapping ecosystem services’ values: Current practice and future prospects. Ecosyst. Serv. 4(2), 33-46.
[27] Song, W., Deng, X.Z., Yuan, Y.W ., et al., 2015. Impacts of land-use change on valued ecosystem service in rapidly urbanized North China Plain. Ecol. Model. 318, 245-253.
[28] Song, X.P ., 2018. Global estimates of ecosystem service value and change: Taking into account uncertainties in satellite-based land cover data. Ecol. Econ. 143, 227-235.
[29] Pakistan Water Sector Strategy (PWSS). 2002. National Water Sector Profile, volume 5, October 2002. Ministry of Water and Power, Office of the Chief Engineering Advisor. http://waterinfo.net.pk/cms/pdf/vol5.pdf.
[30] Wu, C.F., Lin, Y.P., Chiang, L.C ., et al., 2014. Assessing highway’s impacts on landscape patterns and ecosystem services: a case study in Puli Township, Taiwan. Landsc. Urban Plann. 128, 60-71.
[31] Xie, G.D., Zhen, L., Lu, C.L ., et al., 2008. Applying value transfer method for eco-service valuation in China. J. Resour. Ecol. 1(1), 51-60.
[32] Yang, Y.Y., Zhang, S.W., Yang, J.C ., et al., 2015. Using a Cellular Automata-Markov model to reconstruct spatial land-use patterns in Zhenlai County, northeast China. Energies, 8(5), 3882-3902.
[33] Young, W.J., Anwar, A., Bhatti, T ., 2019. Pakistan: Getting More from Water. Water Papers: 133964, Washington DC: World Bank, 1-191.
[34] Zhang, D., Huang, Q.X., He, C.Y ., et al., 2017. Impacts of urban expansion on ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China: A scenario analysis based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Resources, Conserv. Recycl. 125, 115-130.
[35] Zhao, Y.Y., Wu, J.G., He, C.Y ., et al., 2017. Linking wind erosion to ecosystem services in drylands: a landscape ecological approach. Landsc. Ecol. 32, 2399-2417.
[36] Zhao, Y.Y., Liu, Z.F., Wu, J.G ., et al., 2020. Grassland ecosystem services: a systematic review of research advances and future directions. Landsc. Ecol. 35, 793-814.
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉

Authors
  • Submit Online
  • Guide for Authors
  • Submission Template
  • Author Declaration Template
  • Ethical Policy
    • Reviewers
  • Reviewers Login
  • Tutorial for Reviewers
    • Contact
  • Tel: 86-991-7827334
    E-mail: regsus@ms.xjb.ac.cn
    Address: No. 818 South Beijing Road,
                   Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
    • REGSUS Wechat
    • Copyright © Editorial Office of Regional Sustainability. All Rights Reserved.
    • 新ICP备06001700号-10　 新公网安备 65010402001202号