Full Length Article

Impact of climate change on agricultural production: A case of Rasuwa District, Nepal

  • Binod DAWADI ,
  • Anjula SHRESTHA ,
  • Ram Hari ACHARYA ,
  • Yam Prasad DHITAL ,
  • Rohini DEVKOTA
Expand
  • aCentral Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur Kathmandu, 44613, Nepal
    bKathmandu Centre for Research and Education, Chinese Academy of Sciences -Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur Kathmandu, 44613, Nepal
    cCentral Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur Kathmandu, 44613, Nepal
    dDepartment of Meteorology, Tri-Chandra Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Ghantaghar Kathmandu, 44600, Nepal
    eCollege of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi, 832000, China
    fSouthern Downs Regional Council, Queensland, 4350, Australia
    gUniversity of Southern Queensland Toowoomba, Queensland, 4350, Australia
*E-mail address: binod.dawadi@cdhm.tu.edu.np (B. DAWADI).

Received date: 2021-12-28

  Revised date: 2022-06-20

  Accepted date: 2022-07-08

  Online published: 2022-09-19

Abstract

Climate change is expected to threaten the developing countries the most. Nepal is considered one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. The mountainous area such as Rasuwa District in Nepal is more vulnerable due to complex topography, human activity (tourism), and climate change. In this context, we carried out this study to assess the climate change and its impact on agriculture production as well as people’s perceptions on the impact of climate change. The long-term (1980-2014) observed climate data (temperature and precipitation) and field-based survey data on people’s perceptions were analyzed. Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation were used to analyze the temperature and precipitation trends. Furthermore, key informant interviews (KIIs) and focal group discussions (FGDs) were conducted to understand people’s perceptions of the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Further, ERA5 and APHRODITE datasets were used to compare the in situ climate data. The maximum temperature and total precipitation in summer monsoon (June-September) were found increasing significantly at rates of 0.07°C/a and 19.89 mm/a, respectively. But the minimum winter temperature and winter precipitation were found decrease by 0.05°C/a and 4.89 mm/a, respectively. Moreover, a large number of respondents reported a decrease in millet and wheat productions while an increase in potato production over the considered time duration (1990-2014). It is noteworthy that the respondents from the mid-elevation regions perceived an increasing trend in crop production compared to those from the low elevation regions. In recent years, people living in the high elevation regions of Rasuwa District have started to shift their cropping calendar to increase agricultural production. This study will provide useful information for policy-makers in formulating adaptation strategies in mountainous areas of Nepal.

Cite this article

Binod DAWADI , Anjula SHRESTHA , Ram Hari ACHARYA , Yam Prasad DHITAL , Rohini DEVKOTA . Impact of climate change on agricultural production: A case of Rasuwa District, Nepal[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2022 , 3(2) : 122 -132 . DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.07.002

References

[1] Arkin, H., Colton, R.R., 1963. Tables for statisticians. New York: Barnes and Noble, 136-137.
[2] Boos, W.R., Kuang, Z., 2010. Dominant control of the South Asian monsoon by orographic insulation versus plateau heating. Nature. 463(7278), 218-222.
[3] Central Bureau of Statistics, 2019. National Economic Census 2018, Nepal. [2022-06-05] https://cbs.gov.np/national-economic-census-2018/.
[4] Chen, Y., Sharma, S., Zhou, X., et al., 2021. Spatial performance of multiple reanalysis precipitation datasets on the southern slope of central Himalaya. Atmos. Res. 250, 105365, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105365.
[5] Dawadi, B., Acharya, R.H., Lamichhane, D., et al., 2020. A short note on linkage of climatic records between terai and midmountain of central Nepal. J. Geogr. Res. 3(04), 30-35.
[6] Devkota, R., 2013. Indigenous knowledge for climate change induced flood adaptation in Nepal. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts & Responses. 5(1), 35-46.
[7] Devkota, R.P., 2014. Climate change: trends and people’s perception in Nepal. J. Environ. Prot. 5(4), 255-265.
[8] Devkota, R., Khadka, K., Gartaula, H., et al., 2016. Gender and labour efficiency in finger millet production in Nepal. In: Jemimah, N., John, P., Amy K., (eds.). Transforming Gender and Food Security in the Global South (1st Edition). London: Routledge, 100-119.
[9] Devkota, R.P., Pandey, V.P., Bhattarai, U., et al., 2017. Climate change and adaptation strategies in Budhi Gandaki River Basin, Nepal: A perception-based analysis. Clim. Change. 140(2), 195-208.
[10] Devkota, R.P., Bhattarai, U., Devkota, L., et al., 2020. Assessing the past and adapting to future floods: a hydro-social analysis. Clim. Change. 163(2), 1065-1082.
[11] Dhar, O.N., Nandargi, S., 2005. Areas of heavy precipitation in the Nepalese Himalayas. Weather. 60(12), 354-356.
[12] Dhital, Y.P., Kayastha, R.B., 2013. Frequency analysis, causes and impacts of flooding in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. J. Flood Risk Manag. 6(3), 253-260.
[13] Dhital, Y.P., Tang, Q.H., Shi, J.C., 2013. Hydroclimatological changes in the Bagmati River basin, Nepal. J. Geogr. Sci. 23(4), 612-626.
[14] Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, 2017. Observed Climate Trend Analysis in the Districts and Physiographic Regions of Nepal (1971-2014). [2021-06-29]. https://www.dhm.gov.np/uploads/climatic/467608975Observed%20Climate%20Trend%20Analysis%20Report_2017_Final.pdf.
[15] Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, 2021. Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal date information. [2022-06-29]. http://www.dhm.gov.np/publication/11.
[16] Fagan, M., Huang, C., 2019. A Look at How People around the World View Climate Change. [2020-10-04]. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/18/a-look-at-how-people-around-the-world-view-climate-change/.
[17] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2019. Agriculture and climate change-Challenges and opportunities at the global and local-collaboration on Climate-Smart Agriculture. Rome: FAO, 52.
[18] Fujita, K., Thompson, L.G., Ageta, Y., et al., 2006. Thirty-year history of glacier melting in the Nepal Himalayas. J. Geophys. Res. 111(D3), D03109, doi: 10.1029/2005jd005894.
[19] Gouvas, M.A., Sakellariou, N.K., Kambezidis, H.D., 2011. Estimation of the monthly and annual mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature values in Greece. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 110(3), 143-149.
[20] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2021. Climate change 2021:The physical science basis. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, A.P., Pirani, S.L., et al., (eds.). Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
[21] Joshi, B., Joshi, G.R., 2016. Climate change perception and determinants of adoption of agricultural practices in Rasuwa district of Nepal. Nepal J. Environ. Sci. 4, 63-70.
[22] Karki, R., Talchabhadel, R., Aalto, J., 2016. New climatic classification of Nepal. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 125(3-4), 799-808.
[23] Karki, R., Schickhoff, U., Scholten, T., et al., 2017. Rising precipitation extremes across Nepal. Climate. 5(1), 4, doi: 10.3390/cli5010004.
[24] Kattel, D.B., Yao, T., 2013. Recent temperature trends at mountain stations on the southern slope of the central Himalayas. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 122(1), 215-227.
[25] Kattel, D.B., Yao, T., Yang, K., 2013. Temperature lapse rate in complex mountain terrain on the southern slope of the central Himalayas. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 113(3-4), 671-682.
[26] Kendall, M.G., 1975. Rank correlation measures. London: Charles Griffin, 15.
[27] Lobell, D.B., 2007. Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields. Agric. For. Meteorol. 145(3-4), 229-238.
[28] Malla, G., 2008. Climate change and its impact on Nepalese agriculture. Journal of agriculture and environment, 9, 62-71
[29] Mann, H.B., 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society. 245-259.
[30] Martin, G., Reilly, K., Everitt, H., 2022. The impact of climate change awareness on children’s mental well-being and negative emotions-a scoping review. Child Adolesc. Ment. Health. 27(1), 59-72.
[31] Ministry of Environment, 2010. Climate change vulnerability mapping for Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Environment, 32-34.
[32] Nepal Disaster Report, 2015. Kathmandu: The Government of Nepal, Ministry of Home Affairs and Disaster Preparedness Network-Nepal. [2020-10-04] https://floodresilience.net/resources/item/nepal-disaster-report-2015/.
[33] Nayava, J.L., Adhikary, S., Bajracharya, O.R., 2017. Spatial and temporal variation of surface air temperature at different altitude zone in recent 30 years over Nepal. Mausam. 68(3), 417-428.
[34] Neupane, B.K., Acharya, A., Thapa, L., 2019. Local people’s perception on climate change at kamalamai municipality, sindhuli. Geog. Base. 6, 21-31.
[35] Sapkota, D., Pokhrel, S., 2010. Community based maize seed production in the hills and mountains of Nepal: A review. Agronomy Journal of Nepal. 1, 107-112.
[36] Sapkota, R., Rijal, K., 2016. Climate Change and its Impact in Nepal. PhD Dissertation. Katmandu: Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, 9-11.
[37] Sen, P.K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63(324), 1379-1389.
[38] Sharma, S., Hamal, K., Khadka, N., et al., 2020. Dominant pattern of year-to-year variability of summer precipitation in Nepal during 1987-2015. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 142(3), 1071-1084.
[39] Shrestha, M.L., 2000. Interannual variation of summer monsoon rainfall over Nepal and its relation to Southern Oscillation Index. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 75(1-2), 21-28.
[40] Sigdel, M., Ikeda, M., 2010. Spatial and temporal analysis of drought in Nepal using standardized precipitation index and its relationship with climate indices. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology. 7(1), 59-74.
[41] Sigdel, M., Ma, Y., 2017. Variability and trends in daily precipitation extremes on the northern and southern slopes of the central Himalaya. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 130(1-2), 571-581.
[42] Talchabhadel, R., Karki, R., Thapa, B.R., et al., 2018. Spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation in Nepal. Int. J. Climatol. 38(11), 4296-4313.
[43] Thakuri, S., Dahal, S., Shrestha, D., et al., 2019. Elevation-dependent warming of maximum air temperature in Nepal during 1976-2015. Atmos. Res. 228, 261-269.
[44] Tiwari, K.R., Awasthi, K.D., Balla, M.K., et al., 2010. Local people’s perception on climate change, its impact and adaptation practices in Himalaya to Terai regions of Nepal. J. Mater. Sci. Lett. doi: 10.1007/BF01730062.
[45] Yiridomoh, G.Y., Bonye, S.Z., Derbile, E.K., et al., 2022. Women farmers’ perceived indices of occurrence and severity of observed climate extremes in rural Savannah, Ghana. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 24(1), 810-831.
[46] You, Q., Kang, S., Pepin, N., et al., 2010. Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Glob. Planet. Change. 71(1-2), 124-133.
[47] Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D., et al., 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmos.-Ocean. 38(3), 395-429.
Outlines

/