Integrating farmers’ perceptions and empirical climate data to assess agricultural productivity and food security in coastal Bangladesh
Received date: 2024-11-21
Revised date: 2025-08-31
Accepted date: 2025-10-15
Online published: 2025-11-06
Coastal Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, unpredictable precipitation, cyclones, droughts, and saltwater intrusion. These factors collectively threaten agricultural productivity and food security. This study examines the relationship between farmers’ perceptions and observable climatic trends, with a focus on the sustainability of food systems and the promotion of adaptable farming techniques in Bagerhat District, Bangladesh. A mixed-methods strategy was employed, incorporating household surveys (a total of 110 purposively selected farmers), focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and climatic data analysis. The Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, precipitation concentration index (PCI), and standardized rainfall anomaly index (SRAI) were employed to analyze climate trends from 1991 to 2020. The findings showed that more than 70.00% of respondents indicated that summers were becoming warmer, over 50.00% reported that winters were becoming colder, and 63.00% stated that yearly precipitation was decreasing. Farmers reported an increase in flood occurrences and a decline in the predictability of precipitation. Between 2011 and 2019, the output of most rice varieties decreased, with the exception of high-yielding Aman rice and hybrid Boro rice. The results also showed that 60.00% of respondents reported experiencing salinity intrusion, and 57.00% attributed significant yield losses to salinity. Planting salt-tolerant rice varieties (such as BRRI Dhan 67 and Binadhan-10), practicing homestead vegetable cultivation, and moderately integrating shrimp aquaculture were also common adaptive measures. To improve long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh, we suggest growing more salt-tolerant crop varieties, promoting vertical and homestead gardening, enhancing seed systems that are resilient to climate change, and educating farmers on the use of climate-smart farming methods. This study highlights the importance of aligning farmers’ perceptions with observed climatic data to design effective adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can guide policy-makers and development practitioners in strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring long-term food security in coastal Bangladesh.
Md Tauhid Ur RAHMAN , Adnan KHAIRULLAH . Integrating farmers’ perceptions and empirical climate data to assess agricultural productivity and food security in coastal Bangladesh[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2025 , 6(5) : 100259 . DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100259
| [1] | Afroz, T., 2024. Integrating climate change and development: Policy and strategy in the coastal zone management of Bangladesh. In: Aston, J., Tomer, A., Singh, R., (eds.). Comparative Law: Unravelling Global Legal Systems. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore, 329-350. |
| [2] | Ahmed, S., Khan, M.A., 2023. Spatial overview of climate change impacts in Bangladesh: A systematic review. Clim. Dev. 15(2), 132-147. |
| [3] | Ahmed, Z., Ambinakudige, S., 2024. How does shrimp farming impact agricultural production and food security in coastal Bangladesh? Evidence from farmer perception and the remote sensing approach. Ocean Coastal Manage. 255, 107241, doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107241. |
| [4] | Akber, M.A., Islam, M.A., Rahman, M.M., et al., 2022. Crop diversification in southwest coastal Bangladesh: Insights into farming adaptation. Agroecol. Sustain. Food Syst. 46(2), 316-324. |
| [5] | Alam, E., Hridoy, A.E.E., Tusher, S.M.S.H., et al., 2023. Climate change in Bangladesh: temperature and rainfall climatology of Bangladesh for 1949-2013 and its implication on rice yield. PLoS One. 18(10), e0295718, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0292668. |
| [6] | Basak, J.K., Ali, M.A., Islam, M.N., et al., 2010. Assessment of the effect of climate change on Boro rice production in Bangladesh using DSSAT model. Journal of Civil Engineering (IEB), 38(2), 95-108. |
| [7] | BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics), 2020. Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics. [2024-10-01]. https://bbs.gov.bd/site/page/3e838eb6-30a2-4709-be85-40484b0c16c6/Yearbook-of-Agricultural-Statistics. |
| [8] | Behera, M.D., Prakash, J., Paramanik, S., et al., 2021. Assessment of tropical cyclone Amphan’s affected inundation areas using Sentinel-1 satellite data. Trop. Ecol. 63(1), 9-19. |
| [9] | Bernzen, A., Jenkins, J.C., Braun, B., 2019. Climate change-induced migration in coastal Bangladesh? A critical assessment of migration drivers in rural households under economic and environmental stress. Geosciences. 9(1), 51, doi: 10.3390/geosciences9010051. |
| [10] | Carcedo, A.J.P., Bastos, L.M., Yadav, S., et al., 2022. Assessing the impact of salinity and climate scenarios on dry season field crops in the coastal region of Bangladesh. Agric. Syst. 200, 103428, doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2022.103428. |
| [11] | Chen, J., Mueller, V., 2018. Coastal climate change, soil salinity and human migration in Bangladesh. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 981-985. |
| [12] | Chen, J.J., Mueller, V., Jia, Y.Y., et al., 2017. Validating migration responses to flooding using satellite and vital registration data. Am. Econ. Rev. 107(5), 441-445. |
| [13] | Cho, R., 2018. How Climate Change Will Alter Our Food. [2024-10-25]. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/07/25/climate-change-food-agriculture/. |
| [14] | Dasgupta, S., Hossain, M.M., Huq, M., et al., 2014. Climate change, soil salinity and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh. In: Knowledge for Change Program. Policy Research Working Paper No.WPS7140. Washington, the USA. |
| [15] | Dhaka, T., 2022. Low-Lying Areas of Coastal Districts Face Flood Risk. [2024-10-11]. https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/292080/low-lying-areas-of-coastal-districts-face-flood. |
| [16] | Eckstein, D., Künzel, V., Sch?fer, L., 2021. The Global Climate Risk Index 2021. Bonn: Germanwatch. |
| [17] | EI Kasri, J., Lahmili, A., Soussi, H., et al., 2021. Trend analysis of meteorological variables: Rainfall and temperature. Civil Engineering Journal. 7(11), 1868-1879. |
| [18] | Faisal, M., Saha, M.K., Biswas, A.M.A.A., 2024. Risk analysis of climate-induced disaster in coastal Bangladesh: Study on Dashmina Upazila in Patuakhali District. Int. J. Disaster Manag. 6(3), 355-368. |
| [19] | Freihardt, J., 2024. Perceptions of environmental changes among a climate-vulnerable population from Bangladesh. Clim. Change. 177(2), 25, doi: 10.1007/s10584-024-03678-6. |
| [20] | Gray, C.L., Mueller, V., 2012. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109(16), 6000-6005. |
| [21] | Haque, M.A., Jahiruddin, M., Clarke, D., 2018. Effect of plastic mulch on crop yield and land degradation in the south coastal saline soils of Bangladesh. Int. Soil Water Conserv. Res. 6(4), 317-324. |
| [22] | Haque, S.A., 2006. Salinity problems and crop production in coastal regions of Bangladesh. Pak. J. Bot. 38(5), 1359-1365. |
| [23] | Hasan, M.K., Desiere, S., D’Haese, M., et al., 2018. Impact of climate-smart agriculture adoption on the food security of coastal farmers in Bangladesh. Food Secur. 10, 1073-1088. |
| [24] | Hasnat, M.A., Hossain, N., Muhammad, M., et al., 2016. Impacts of climate change on agriculture and changing adaptive strategies in the coastal area of Lakshmipur district, Bangladesh. Current World Environment. 11(3), 700-714. |
| [25] | Hassan, A.W.R., Das, A.K., 2015. Social issues: Occupation change and food security in Bangladesh. In: Habiba, U., Abedin, M.A., (eds.). Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh. Tokyo: Springer, 53-63. |
| [26] | Hossain, E., Rashid, H.O., Aggarwal, R., et al., 2020. Midline household survey results: Bagerhat, Bangladesh. In: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). IFPRI Survey Report. Dhaka, Bangladesh. |
| [27] | Hossain, M.A., Kabir, H., Faruk, A.M.O., et al., 2015. Impact of delayed monsoon, erratic rainfall and drought on aquatic biodiversity, livelihood and food security. In: Department of Environment, Ministry of Environment and Forests, (eds.). Bangladesh: Combating Land Degradation and Drought Series - II. Dhaka: Government of Bangladesh, 25-47. |
| [28] | Hossain, M.A.R., Hasan, M.R., 2017. An assessment of impacts from shrimp aquaculture in Bangladesh and prospects for improvement. In: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Technical Paper No. 618. Rome, Italy. |
| [29] | Hossain, M.I., Reza, A.S., Shafiuzzaman, S.M., et al., 2025. The effects of seawater intrusion on sustainable coastal areas: A comprehensive study on Bagerhat district, Bangladesh. Reg. Stud. Mar. Sci. 82, 104038, doi: 10.1016/j.rsma.2025.104038. |
| [30] | Hossain, M.S., Kabir, A., Nargis, P., 2017. Climate change impacts and adaptations in wetlands. In: Prusty, B.A.K., Chandra, R., Azeez, P.A., (eds.). Wetland Science: Perspectives from South Asia. New Delhi: Springer, 225-241. |
| [31] | Hossain, M.S., Qian, L., Arshad, M., et al., 2018. Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: An analysis of economic impacts. Int. J. Clim. Chang. Strateg. Manag. 11(3), 424-440. |
| [32] | ICCCAD (International Centre for Climate Change and Development), 2022. Salt-Tolerant Rice Varieties Bring Hope to Bangladesh Farmers. [2024-10-20]. https://icccad.net/the-business-standard/salt-tolerant-rice-varieties-bring-hope-to-bangladesh-farmers/. |
| [33] | ICSF (International Collective in Support of Fishworkers), 2021. Bangladesh: Bagerhat Shrimp Industry Reeling Under Double Whammy of Rain and Drought. [2024-10-21]. https://icsf.net/newss/bangladesh-bagerhat-shrimp-industry-reeling-under-double-whammy-of-rain-and-drought/. |
| [34] | Islam, R., Ahmed, R., Dey, B., et al., 2023. Salinity hazard drives the alteration of occupation, land use and ecosystem service in the coastal areas: Evidence from the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. Heliyon. 9(8), e18512, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18512. |
| [35] | Jahan, M.S., Tamim, A., Nishita, S.A., et al., 2024. A trend analysis of rainfall in the Khulna district of Bangladesh. Big Data in Water Resources Engineering. 5(2), 30-37. |
| [36] | Jamal, M.R., Kristiansen, P., Kabir, M.J., et al., 2023. Challenges and adaptations for resilient rice production under changing environments in Bangladesh. Land. 12(6), 1217, doi: 10.3390/land12061217. |
| [37] | Kendall, M.G., 1970. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Griffin. |
| [38] | Khan, S.A., 2024. The Role of Innovation and Adaptation Technologies in Climate Change-Induced Disaster Risk Reduction: Enhancing Resilience in Satkhira Communities of Bangladesh. [2024-10-29]. https://mspace.lib.umanitoba.ca/items/03406c12-25ad-46a4-8278-0b7f56e724eb. |
| [39] | Khanom, T., 2016. Effect of salinity on food security in the context of the interior coast of Bangladesh. Ocean Coastal Manage. 130, 205-212. |
| [40] | Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., et al., 2023. IPCC, 2023: Climate change 2023: Synthesis report, summary for policymakers. In: Lee, H., Romero, J., (eds.). Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Geneva: IPCC. |
| [41] | Lee, H., Romero, J., 2023. Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report. Geneva: IPCC. |
| [42] | Maharjan, A., de Campos, R.S., Singh, C., et al., 2020. Migration and household adaptation in climate-sensitive hotspots in South Asia. Curr. Clim. Chang. Rep. 6, doi: 10.1007/s40641-020-00153-z. |
| [43] | Mallick, B., Vogt, J., 2012. Cyclone, coastal society and migration: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Int. Dev. Plan. Rev. 34(3), 217-240. |
| [44] | Mandal, U.K., Maji, B., Mullick, S., et al., 2019. Global climate change and human interferences as risk factors, and their impacts on geomorphological features as well as on farming practices in the Sundarbans eco-region. In: Hazra, S., Samanta, K., (eds.). The Sundarbans: A Disaster-Prone Eco-Region: Increasing Livelihood Security. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 405-437. |
| [45] | Mann, H.B., 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society. 13(3), 245-259. |
| [46] | Mazhar, M.M., Abid, A.A., Jyoti, L.T.Z., et al., 2024. Assessing the dynamics of climate change in Khulna City: A comprehensive analysis of temperature, rainfall, and humidity trends. International Journal of Science and Engineering. 1(1), 10.62304, doi: 10.62304/ijse.v1i1.118. |
| [47] | Mia, A.H., Islam, M.R., 2005. Coastal land uses and indicative land zones. In: Program Development Office for Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan. WP 017 Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan Project. Dhaka, Bangladesh. |
| [48] | ODV (Open Development Vietnam), 2022. The New Normal: Mekong Delta Faces Droughts and Saltwater Intrusion. [2024-10-11]. https://vietnam.opendevelopmentmekong.net/topics/droughts-and-saltwater-intrusion/. |
| [49] | Parvez, S., 2020. Coastal Farmers Take the Brunt. The Daily Star. [2024-10-01]. https://www.thedailystar.net/frontpage/news/coastal-farmers-take-the-brunt-1905004. |
| [50] | Parvin, G.A., Ali, M.H., Fujita, K., et al., 2017. Land use change in southwestern coastal Bangladesh: Consequences for food and water supply. In: Banba, M., Shaw, R., (eds.). Land Use Management in Disaster Risk Reduction: Practice and Cases From a Global Perspective. Tokyo: Springer, 381-401. |
| [51] | Qadir, M., Quillérou, E., Nangia, V., et al., 2014. Economics of salt-induced land degradation and restoration. Nat. Resour. Forum. 38(4), 282-295. |
| [52] | Rahaman, M.A., Rahman, M.M., Rahman, S.H., 2019. Pathways of climate-resilient health systems in Bangladesh. In: Huq, S., Chow, J., Fenton, A., (eds.). Confronting Climate Change in Bangladesh: Policy Strategies for Adaptation and Resilience. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 119-143. |
| [53] | Rahman, M.R., Lateh, H., Islam, M.N., 2018. Climate of Bangladesh: temperature and rainfall changes, and impact on agriculture and groundwater—A GIS-based analysis. In: Islam, M.N., van Amstel, A., (eds.). Bangladesh I: Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation in Developing Countries. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 27-65. |
| [54] | Rahman, M.T.U., Khairullah, A., 2024. Assessment of water security challenges in hilly terrain of Bangladesh: An insight into quantity and quality concerns and implementation of effective solutions. Sustain. Wat. Resour. Manag. 10, 153, doi: 10.1007/s40899-024-01126-y. |
| [55] | Rahman, M.T.U., Khairullah, A., Ishtiaque, A., et al., 2024. Geo-electrical resistivity sounding and high-frequency electromagnetic method to explore groundwater in Sajek, Rangamati District of Bangladesh. SSRN Preprints. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4642397. |
| [56] | Rashid, M.H., Nasrin, S., Mahalder, D., 2014. Zero-tilled dibbled sunflowers enable planting earlier and harvesting more in the coastal saline area of Bangladesh. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. 5(3), 260-264. |
| [57] | Ray, D.K., Gerber, J.S., MacDonald, G.K., et al., 2015. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat. Commun. 6, 5989, doi: 10.1038/ncomms6989. |
| [58] | Romieu, E., Welle, T., Schneiderbauer, S., et al., 2010. Vulnerability assessment within climate change and natural hazard contexts: revealing gaps and synergies through coastal applications. Sustain. Sci. 5(2), 159-170. |
| [59] | Saleh, A., 2024. How to Support Farmers as Climate Change Hits Agriculture. [2024-10-15]. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/01/climate-change-agriculture-farmers-bangladesh/. |
| [60] | Schmidhuber, J., Tubiello, F.N., 2007. Global food security under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104(50), 19703-19708. |
| [61] | Schneider, P., Asch, F., 2020. Rice production and food security in Asian mega deltas—A review on characteristics, vulnerabilities and agricultural adaptation options to cope with climate change. J. Agron. Crop Sci. 206(4), 491-503. |
| [62] | Sen, P.K., 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63(324), 1379-1389. |
| [63] | Shahadat, M.K., Rashid, M.H., Ali, M.A., 2019. Performance of garden pea varieties as an intercrop with maize in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Journal of the Indian Society of Coastal Agricultural Research. 37(2), 104-114. |
| [64] | Shuvo, S.D., Hasan, M.M., Das, T.K., et al., 2024. Food insecurity and its contributing determinants among rural households in the southwestern region of Bangladesh, 2021: A cross-sectional study. Public Health Pract. 8, 100514, doi: 10.1016/j.puhip.2024.100514. |
| [65] | SRDI (Soil Resources Development Institute) 2010. Saline Soils of Bangladesh. [2024-10-10]. http://srdi.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/srdi.portal.gov.bd/publications/bc598e7a_df21_49ee_882e_0302c974015f/Soil%20salinity%20report-Nov%202010.pdf. |
| [66] | Tariqujjaman, M., Rahman, M., Wangdi, K., et al., 2023. Geographical variations of food insecurity and its associated factors in Bangladesh: Evidence from pooled data of seven cross-sectional surveys. PLoS One. 18(1), e0280157, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280157. |
| [67] | Tushar, A.H., Parvin, R.A., 2024. Bangladesh’s climate vulnerability and overseas migration: Navigating challenges and paving the way forward. Indonesian Journal of Innovation and Applied Sciences. 4(1), 69-78. |
| [68] | UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), 2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. In: Macmillan, P., (ed.). Human Development Report. Oxford: Oxford University Press. |
| [69] | Veer, A., 2024. Climate Change Exposes Bangladesh to Greater Risk. [2024-10-31]. https://bipr.jhu.edu/BlogArticles/31-Climate-Change-Exposes-Bangladesh-to-Greater-Risk.cfm. |
| [70] | Widiono, S., Wahyuni, E.S., Kolopaking, L.M., et al., 2024. Livelihood vulnerability of indigenous people to climate change around the Kerinci Seblat National Park in Bengkulu, Indonesia. Reg. Sustain. 5(4), 100181, doi: 10.1016/j.regsus.2024.100181. |
| [71] | Wijeratne, M.A., Anandacoomaraswamy, A., Amarathunga, M.K.S.L.D., et al., 2007. Assessment of the impact of climate change on the productivity of tea (Camellia sinensis L.) plantations in Sri Lanka. J. Natl. Sci. Found. Sri Lanka. 35(2), 119-126. |
| [72] | World Bank Group, 2012. Bangladesh: Updating Poverty Maps of Bangladesh (English). Washington: World Bank. |
| [73] | World Bank Group, 2013. India: Climate Change Impacts. [2024-10-19]. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/06/19/india-climate-change-impacts. |
| [74] | World Bank Group, 2022. Key Highlights: Country Climate and Development Report for Bangladesh. [2024-10-31]. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/10/31/key-highlights-country-climate-and-development-report-for-bangladesh. |
| [75] | Yee, A. 2015. Vertical Gardens Help Bangladesh Farmers Overcome Salty Soil. [2024-10-06]. https://www.voanews.com/a/vertical-gardens-help-bangladesh-farmers-overcome-salty-soil/2631540.html. |
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
REGSUS Wechat
新公网安备 65010402001202号