Quantifying the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the upper Gilgel Abbay watershed, Ethiopia

doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2025.100197

Abstract

Abstract:

Human well-being and livelihoods depend on natural ecosystem services (ESs). Following the increment of population, ESs have been deteriorated over time. Ultimately, land use/land cover (LULC) changes have a profound impact on the change of ecosystem. The primary goal of this study is to determine the impacts of LULC changes on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the upper Gilgel Abbay watershed, Ethiopia. Changes in LULC types were studied using three Landsat images representing 1986, 2003, and 2021. The Landsat images were classified using a supervised image classification technique in Earth Resources Data Analysis System (ERDAS) Imagine 2014. We classified ESs in this study into four categories (including provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural services) based on global ES classification scheme. The adjusted ESV coefficient benefit approach was employed to measure the impacts of LULC changes on ESVs. Five LULC types were identified in this study, including cultivated land, forest, shrubland, grassland, and water body. The result revealed that the area of cultivated land accounted for 64.50%, 71.50%, and 61.50% of the total area in 1986, 2003, and 2021, respectively. The percentage of the total area covered by forest was 9.50%, 5.90%, and 14.80% in 1986, 2003, and 2021, respectively. Result revealed that the total ESV decreased from 7.42×10⁷ to 6.44×10⁷ USD between 1986 and 2003. This is due to the expansion of cultivated land at the expense of forest and shrubland. However, the total ESV increased from 6.44×10⁷ to 7.76×10⁷ USD during 2003-2021, because of the increment of forest and shrubland. The expansion of cultivated land and the reductions of forest and shrubland reduced most individual ESs during 1986-2003. Nevertheless, the increase in forest and shrubland at the expense of cultivated land enhanced many ESs during 2003-2021. Therefore, the findings suggest that appropriate land use practices should be scaled-up to sustainably maintain ESs.

Key words: Ecosystem service values (ESVs), Land use/land cover (LULC), Ecosystem services (ESs), Provisioning service, Gilgel Abbay watershed

Wassie Abuhay ASCHENEFE, Temesgen Gashaw TAREKEGN, Betelhem Fetene ADMAS, Solomon Mulu TAFERE. Quantifying the impacts of land use/land cover changes on ecosystem service values in the upper Gilgel Abbay watershed, Ethiopia[J]. Regional Sustainability, 2025, 6(1): 100197.

Figures/Tables 8

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LULC type	Description
Cultivated land	Areas used for annual crops and irrigated areas as well as the scatter rural settlements
Grassland	Areas covered by grasses, usually, used for grazing and those remaining for some months in a year
Shrubland	Land covered with herbaceous plants, shrubs, and scattered trees, usually, less-denser than forest
Forest	Areas covered with both plantation and natural forests
Water body	Land covered with any significant accumulation of water, including wetlands

LULC type	Area (hm²)			Equivalent biome	ESV coefficient (USD/(hm²•a))
LULC type	1986	2003	2021	Equivalent biome	ESV coefficient (USD/(hm²•a))
Cultivated land	104,600	116,800	99,900	Cropland	225.56
Forest	15,400	9400	24,100	Tropical forest	986.69
Shrubland	30,600	25,200	28,600	Tropical forest	986.69
Grassland	12,400	11,700	10,800	Rangeland	293.25
Water body	200	60	30	River and lake	8103.50

ES function	Adjusted ESV coefficient (USD/(hm²•a))
ES function	Cropland	Tropical forest	Rangeland	River and lake
Water supply		8.00	117.45	2117.00
Food production	187.56	32.00		41.00
Raw materials		51.24
Genetic resources		41.00	3.00
Water regulation		6.00
Climate regulation		223.00		5445.00
Disturbance regulation		5.00	7.00	431.50
Gas regulation		13.68	23.00
Biological control	24.00		29.00
Erosion control		245.00	87.00
Waste treatment		136.00
Nutrient cycling		184.40	25.00
Pollination	24.00	7.27	1.00
Soil formation		10.00
Habitat/refuge		17.30	0.80
Recreation		4.80		69.00
Cultural		2.00
Total	235.56	986.69	293.25	8103.50

LULC type	1986		2003		2021
LULC type	User accuracy (%)	Producer accuracy (%)	User accuracy (%)	Producer accuracy (%)	User accuracy (%)	Producer accuracy (%)
Water body	87.00	96.00	90.00	100.00	100.00	83.00
Shrubland	79.00	86.00	80.00	84.00	86.00	91.00
Grassland	90.00	87.00	97.00	90.00	96.00	98.00
Cultivated land	89.00	89.00	89.00	79.00	95.00	83.00
Forest	81.00	81.00	82.00	96.00	83.00	96.00
Overall accuracy (%)	85.00		88.00		91.00
Kappa coefficient	0.81		0.84		0.88

LULC type	1986		2003		2021		Percentage change in ESVs (%)
LULC type	ESVs (×10⁷ USD)	Percentage of ESVs (%)	ESVs (×10⁷ USD)	Percentage of ESVs (%)	ESVs (×10⁷ USD)	Percentage of ESVs (%)	1986-2003	2003-2021
Cultivated land	2.36	31.80	2.63	40.90	2.25	29.00	2.75	-3.81
Forest	1.52	20.50	0.93	14.40	2.38	30.60	-5.92	14.50
Shrubland	3.02	40.70	2.49	38.60	2.79	36.00	-5.33	3.06
Grassland	0.36	4.80	0.34	5.30	0.32	4.10	-0.21	-0.26
Water body	0.16	2.20	0.05	0.80	0.02	0.30	-1.13	-0.24
Total	7.42	100.00	6.44	100.00	7.76	100.00	-9.84	13.24